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A decade after the Paris Agreement, governments worldwide are preparing to extract more than twice as much fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) than ever—threatening to push global temperatures well beyond safe limits, according to a new report released on September 22, 2025.
The flagship assessment or report, Production Gap Report 2025 (PGR), is by leading research institutes Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). It is backed by the UN.
The report warns that planned fossil fuel production in 2030 will exceed levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C by more than 120 per cent and to 2°C by 77 per cent.
“Ten years after Paris, renewables are way out in front of the pack. Instead of getting in the race, governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past. While it’s frustrating seeing public money squandered on what will inevitably become stranded assets, it’s intolerably unjust to think about the human and environmental costs of these fossil expansion plans, especially for the most vulnerable,” said Neil Grant, report co-author and senior expert at Climate Analytics.
The findings reveal a widening chasm between countries’ climate commitments and their energy strategies.
Governments collectively plan higher levels of coal production through 2035, gas through 2050, and oil well beyond mid-century compared to projections made just two years ago.
Coal remains the most misaligned: global output in 2030 is projected to be 500 per cent higher than the median 1.5°C pathway and 330 per cent above the 2°C benchmark. Oil and gas gaps are also stark, with planned 2030 production exceeding Paris-aligned limits by 31 per cent and 92 per cent, respectively.
China, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Nigeria are among the countries ramping up extraction. For example, Nigeria recently doubled its 2030 oil target, while Brazil projects a 47 per cent jump in output by the same year. Meanwhile, state-owned companies in China and India continue to back slower coal declines than previously expected.
The report stresses that every year of inaction raises the cost and pace of future reductions. Fossil fuel production has grown rather than peaked in the early 2020s, locking in new infrastructure and delaying cuts that science deems urgent.
To align with the Paris Agreement, coal use must be nearly phased out by 2040, while oil and gas production must fall by around 75 per cent by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. Current trajectories instead project fossil fuel output in 2050 at more than 4.5 times higher than 1.5°C-consistent levels.
Olivier Bois von Kursk, report co-author and policy advisor at IISD, stated, “While many governments see renewables as key to their energy security, others are betting against the clean energy transition. To avert the worst climate impacts with minimal economic disruption, governments need to commit to no new fossil fuels and back the clean industries of the future.”
Authors argue that deliberate policies for a “just transition” are essential to cushion workers and communities dependent on fossil fuel industries. While a few countries—including Colombia, Germany, and Brazil—are beginning to align production scenarios with net-zero goals, most major producers are expanding subsidies and exploration.
The fiscal cost of government support for fossil fuels remains near record highs, the report finds, despite repeated international pledges to phase out inefficient subsidies.
Adding legal weight, the International Court of Justice ruled this year that failing to curb fossil fuel expansion could constitute an internationally wrongful act. “Failure of a State to take appropriate action… may constitute an internationally wrongful act which is attributable to that State,” the Court said.
Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief and a contributor to the report, framed the findings as both a warning and a roadmap. “Fossil fuels are on their last legs and the industry knows it,” she wrote in the foreword. “We have the technology, we have the economics, and we have the legal clarity. What we need now is courage and solidarity to move forward with speed”.
As governments prepare to submit their third round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, the report calls for an explicit reversal of fossil fuel expansion plans and integration of production cuts into broader energy transitions.
“The world cannot afford further delay,” according to the authors of the report.
“To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs rapid reductions in coal, oil, and gas investments, redirecting these resources toward an energy transition that prioritizes equity and justice,” said Emily Ghosh, coordinating lead author and Equitable Transitions Program Director at SEI US.
“By COP30, governments must commit to expand renewables, phase out fossil fuels, manage energy demands, and implement community-centered energy transitions to align with Paris Agreement obligations. Without these commitments, delaying action further will lock in additional emissions and worsen climate impacts on the world’s most vulnerable populations,” she voiced.