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The escalation of war between Israel, the United States (US) on one side and Iran on the other entered its fourth week, intensifying disruption to global energy supplies and regional security.
Tehran on March 23 warned that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas shipments, will be “completely closed” if Washington follows through on US President Donald Trump’s threat to target Iranian power plants. Iran’s representative to the International Maritime Organization said the waterway remains open to most shipping but not to vessels linked to what it called “Iran’s enemies”.
Meanwhile, tensions on Israel’s northern border escalated after rocket fire from Lebanon killed one person in northern Israel on March 22, marking the first fatality from cross-border attacks since the latest conflict erupted. The militant group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the strike, saying it targeted Israeli soldiers. Despite the mounting hostilities, there has been no sign of an uprising within Iran or any immediate end to the fighting, which has already rattled the global economy, disrupted aviation routes and pushed oil prices sharply higher.
International crude markets have reacted strongly to the conflict. Between February 27 and March 23, global oil prices surged more than 40-50 per cent amid fears of supply disruptions in West Asia. Brent crude traded at around $72-$73 per barrel on February 27 but in less than 10 days crossed the $100 mark after the conflict began on February 28 following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. Prices peaked near $119 per barrel on March 9 and remained above $100 through much of March. On March 23, benchmark Brent crude was traded at about $108.87 per barrel and WTI at $99.19 by 4 pm IST, reflecting the sustained geopolitical risk premium.
The surge has been driven by concerns over supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas shipments pass. Reports of attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the region, including facilities in Saudi Arabia, have heightened fears of shortages and triggered panic buying in energy markets.
In response to the evolving situation and LPG shortage, the Government of India has begun implementing contingency measures to safeguard fuel supplies, maritime operations and the welfare of Indian nationals in the region. According to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), all refineries in the country are currently operating at high capacity with adequate crude inventories, and domestic LPG production from refineries has been maximised. Authorities said no fuel shortages have been reported at retail outlets operated by public sector oil marketing companies, urging consumers not to resort to panic buying.
The government has also taken steps to manage natural gas and LPG demand. Supplies to priority sectors such as domestic piped natural gas and compressed natural gas for transport have been fully protected, while supply to industrial and commercial users has been restricted to around 80 per cent of normal consumption. City gas distribution companies, including Indraprastha Gas Limited, Mahanagar Gas Limited, GAIL (India) Limited and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, have been asked to accelerate new piped natural gas connections and offer incentives to consumers willing to switch from LPG.
Commercial LPG supplies have also been adjusted to ease pressure on household consumption. The government has restored 50 per cent allocation of commercial LPG to sectors such as restaurants, hotels, industrial canteens and food processing units, while prioritising hospitals, educational institutions and community kitchens. In addition, 48,000 kilolitres of kerosene have been allocated to states and Union territories to support low-income households through the public distribution system.
Authorities have also intensified enforcement to prevent hoarding and black-marketing. Under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955 and the LPG Control Order, 2000, state governments have been directed to monitor supplies closely and take action against violators. Around 3,500 raids were conducted across several states, including Bihar, Haryana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, leading to the seizure of more than 1,200 LPG cylinders. Public sector oil companies have also conducted surprise inspections at over 1,800 fuel stations and LPG distributorships to ensure smooth supply.
On the maritime front, the Union Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways said it is closely monitoring vessel movements and the safety of Indian seafarers in the region. About 22 Indian-flagged vessels carrying 611 Indian seafarers remain in the western Persian Gulf, while more than 547 seafarers have already been repatriated. A 24-hour control room operated by the Directorate General of Shipping has handled over 3,700 calls and 7,000 emails related to maritime safety.
The Union Ministry of External Affairs said it is maintaining close contact with the Indian community across West Asia, with missions operating round the clock to provide assistance. Since the conflict began on February 28, more than 350,000 passengers have returned to India from the region. Several airspaces remain closed, including those of Kuwait and Bahrain, but special flights are being arranged through Saudi Arabia. Officials said six Indian nationals have died and one remains missing, with diplomatic missions coordinating with local authorities for repatriation and assistance.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 22 chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to review the impact of the conflict and India’s preparedness. Officials assessed potential implications for sectors including energy, fertilisers, agriculture, shipping, trade and supply chains, as well as food and fuel security ahead of the upcoming Kharif season.
The government said coal stocks at power plants remain sufficient to avoid electricity shortages, while ministries are exploring alternative sources for imports of chemicals, fertilisers and petrochemical feedstocks. The prime minister directed the creation of dedicated ministerial and inter-departmental groups to coordinate response measures, emphasising a whole-of-government approach to minimise disruption to citizens and prevent hoarding of essential commodities as the conflict continues to unfold.