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The rapid expansion of anthropogenic activity in outer space is already showing signs that it could cause disruptions to the global environment, with experts expecting them to occur within seven years.
Some 23 per cent of experts believe that these disruptions due to space activity are ‘very likely’ to occur and another 28 per cent voted that this could ‘likely’ occur, according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Report titled Navigating New Horizons — A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing.
If these disruptions occur, the intensity of impact caused by space activity was allotted a grade of ‘2’ on a scale of 1-3, where 1 is low and 3 is high.
“The report provides insights into critical shifts (or emerging phenomena), as well as potential disruptions that could hinder environmental management and impede the achievement of international goals, ultimately jeopardizing planetary health and human wellbeing,” reads the report.
The report is based on nearly 1,200 responses submitted by 790 respondents to a survey conducted in May, 2023. This exercise identified 280 specific signals of change.
The Foresight Expert Panel further – comprising 22 distinguished members of the scientific community from developing and industrialised countries – further shortlisted the signals.
The UNEP warns emissions from increasing satellite launches damage the ozone layer. The acceleration of space activity increases the risk to critical communication, observation infrastructure undermines national security and geopolitical stability, the report added.
The global space industry is projected to grow to $3.7 trillion by 2040, up from $630 billion in 2023. The number of satellites launched per year has grown at a rate of 50 per cent, while launch costs have fallen 10-fold over the last two decades, according to a 2024 report by the World Economic Forum.
Rocket launches and re-entry, the report noted, emit combustion emissions including carbon dioxide, water vapour, and nitrogen oxide. Black carbon from carbon-based solid and hypergolic fuels and kerosene, alumina particles, and gaseous chlorine from solid fuels can deplete the ozone layer.
Black carbon, for instance, can accumulate, absorb solar radiation, and warm the stratosphere and changes global circulation, which, in turn, causes a reduction in the total ozone column.
The ozone layer sits in the stratosphere between 15 km and 30 km above the surface. It protects the living beings from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. Its depletion could have a serious impact on human health and the environment.
A 1985 paper published in the journal Nature recorded springtime losses of ozone over Antarctica for the first time. Scientists noted that human-made ozone-depleting substances, commonly used in refrigeration and air conditioning, have caused damage to the ozone layer.
The 1987 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Montreal Protocol led to a significant reduction in the consumption of these ozone-depleting substances.
The ozone layer is on track to recover within four decades, according to the UN. The 2023 ozone hole, however, has been larger compared to 2022.
The UNEP reports call for monitoring to ensure that the solid progress made on protecting the ozone layer through the Montreal Protocol does not come undone.
Debris re-entering the atmosphere can generate shock waves, which cause chemical reactions in the atmosphere itself. The impacts are being modelled but have yet to be determined, it said.
In 2024, The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that “the atmosphere more than seven miles above the surface is peppered with particles containing a variety of metals from satellites and spent rocket boosters vaporised by the intense heat of re-entry.” These metals have the potential to cause losses to the ozone layer.
Scientists have also long been warning about space junk, which is generated due to the collision of satellites in space. The re-entry of alumina gets deposited in the upper atmosphere, affecting the Earth’s climate. The other concern is light pollution.” Space debris could be considered the new microplastics problem in a different dimension,” reads the report.
This rapid expansion of space activity and orbital debris could affect sustainable development goals SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG 13 (urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts), and SDG 16 (promotes peaceful and inclusive societies).
“By monitoring signals of change and using the foresight approach outlined in this report – including looking outside the traditional environmental space – the world can avoid repeating mistakes of the past and focus on solutions that can withstand future disruption,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said in a statement.