Wily weather

ACTUALLY it cannot. It does very badly. An economy which is largelydependent upon agriculture and where production in the rural sectorgrabs a sizeable chunk of the GDP is itself dependent to a great extentupon good weather. Good weather in the Indian context means timelyrains.

There is a school of thoughtwhich feels that we could encounter more untimely rains and more unusual weather phenomena due to global warming It could lead to more El Nino-type phenomenon. While there is data to indicate that 1998 was the hottest year in the last sixcenturies, there is unfortunately no data to indicate that unusual weather patterns are increasing with temperature changes. Possibly, there has been no research to that effect.

While it would be correct to say that the rising prices of onions have nothing to do with global warming, a country like India has to watch out on other fronts. Even though irregular rainfall patterns have haunted Indian agriculture through the ages, the country has to be better prepared to manage suchweather events. The nations farmers never had to feed such alarge population before. Crop failures therefore win have adevastating effect on more and more people in the future.

The only answer to the problem is to have a robust ruralenvironment Where local people are given the right to manage water and a stake in the natural resources. Only then willthe people and the environment both thrive and only then willthe economy be able to withstand the vagaries of the monsoon. That India can only attain prosperity if her villages areprosperous is more than just a cliche.