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As climate change reshapes ecosystems, a new study has found that up to 90 per cent of natural pollination links between wild vanilla species and their insect partners could be lost by 2050. This shift could destabilise vanilla production and erase valuable genetic traits critical for crop resilience.
A new study published on July 3, 2025 in the journal Frontiers in Plant Science warned that climate change could drive wild vanilla plants and their native pollinators apart, threatening this delicate ecological bond.
Vanilla, like cacao and coffee, is one of the world’s most prized crops. It supports rural economies, drives agricultural innovation and is used widely in food, cosmetics and traditional medicine. But its primary source Vanilla planifolia is increasingly vulnerable to heat, drought and disease, threats that are expected to intensify as the climate warms.
Unlike the cultivated V planifolia, wild vanilla species depend on specific insect pollinators, chiefly orchid bees for natural reproduction. These wild relatives also carry valuable genetic traits, such as drought resistance, heat tolerance and disease resilience, which could help safeguard the future of commercial vanilla.
Led by Charlotte Watteyn of KU Leuven (Belgium) and the Lankester Botanical Garden Research Centre at the University of Costa Rica, the researchers modelled future shifts in habitat for 11 species of wild vanilla and seven insect pollinators under two climate scenarios.
One, the “middle-of-the-road” scenario (SSP2-4.5), assumed moderate global efforts to mitigate climate change. The other, a more pessimistic pathway (SSP3-7.0), assumed continued high emissions and limited international cooperation.
Both scenarios are part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), used to project the impact of emissions and development trends.
The researchers found that seven wild vanilla species could expand their range by as much as 140 per cent under future climate conditions. However, four species could suffer major losses, with their habitats shrinking by up to 53 per cent. Crucially, even the species expected to thrive may face survival challenges if they become isolated from their pollinators.
“Vanilla species are known for their specialised relationships with pollinators, hence, they may experience difficulties in replacing pollinators” Watteyn said. “The future may look brighter for species that are not reliant on a single vector for pollination.”
The implications are far-reaching — not just for biodiversity, but also for farmers and supply chains. Vanilla is already one of the world’s most labour-intensive crops, relying heavily on hand pollination and grown from plants with low genetic diversity. A further breakdown of natural pollination could increase production risks and push up costs.
To protect wild vanilla and the livelihoods that depend on it, the researchers call for urgent conservation action. Key strategies include safeguarding remaining habitats, particularly biodiversity hotspots like Costa Rica, reducing pesticide use, planting native flowering species on and around farms and restoring forest corridors.
The team also recommend preserving genetic diversity through seed banks such as Kew Gardens and involving local communities in conservation and sustainable cultivation.
“Collaborative research on the ecology and genetic diversity of wild vanilla across its natural distribution is paramount if we want to take vanilla breeding into the future, by ethically and sustainably using the local variation to answer global needs,” said co-author Adam Karremans, director of the Lankester Botanical Garden Research Centre.
The authors caution that their findings are based on limited data about the current distribution of wild vanilla species and their pollinators. Other factors — such as seed dispersal, soil changes, deforestation and illegal plant collection — could also affect outcomes and warrant further study.