Killing the forest, killing itself: Brazil faces coffee paradox as it prepares for COP30

What is replacing Brazil’s Atlantic Forest — one of the most biologically rich yet endangered ecosystems on Earth? Coffee.

In the last two decades, coffee has been a leading driver of deforestation in the Atlantic Forest, directly causing the loss of 312,803 hectares of forest, according to a new report by non-profit Coffee Watch.

Once spanning 1.2 million square kilometres, less than 10 per cent of the Atlantic Forest survives today. As Brazil prepares to host the 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Wake Up and Smell the Deforestation report, released on October 22, 2025, found that between 2001 and 2023, municipalities with a high density of coffee cultivation lost over 11 million hectares of forest — an area roughly the size of Honduras.

Of this, at least 312,803 hectares of intact forest were directly cleared for coffee cultivation, found an analysis of satellite imagery, government land-use data, and real-time forest loss alerts.

Meanwhile, forest loss within coffee farms reached 737,000 hectares — with 77 per cent of that in the Cerrado biome and 20 per cent in the Atlantic Forest.

Brazil proudly supplies around 40 per cent of the world’s coffee, but that dominance has come at a vast ecological cost — a long and continuing history of forest destruction, the report warned.

“Coffee is not just a legacy driver of deforestation — it remains a present and growing force behind it. Coffee cultivation grew by over 105 per cent between 1990 and 2023 — from 0.6 to 1.23 million hectares, per satellite data,” the report said.

The paradox

But coffee is not just killing the forest, it is killing itself too. 

Deforestation is now undermining the very conditions that coffee depends on, especially rainfall.

Forests regulate rain, stabilise temperature, and maintain soil moisture. But by disrupting local water cycles, forest loss is pushing key coffee-growing regions into greater heat and drought stress.

Analysing rainfall data from the CHIRPS satellite, the report found that eight of the last ten years since 2014 have seen rainfall deficits across major coffee zones — a sharp break from previous decades. These sustained anomalies were particularly severe during critical flowering and bean development months.

In 2014 alone, rainfall dropped by up to 50 per cent across regions such as Minas Gerais — equivalent to a 300 millimetres fall during peak growth months.

“Landmark droughts in 2016-17, 2019-20 and again in 2023 have devastated yields and exposed the vulnerability of coffee to the very deforestation it fuels — threatening the long-term viability of the industry itself. With every new drought, fire, or pest outbreak, the market reacts faster and harder — pushing up prices by over 40 per cent in 2023-24,” it said. 

Soil moisture data tell a similar story. Readings from National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite show long-term drying across Minas Gerais and other core production zones. In August 2021, the peak coffee season, SMAP data revealed widespread soil moisture depletion across Sul de Minas, Cerrado Mineiro, and Triângulo Mineiro, with some areas losing up to 25 per cent over just six years.

The drying trend has been especially pronounced in monoculture coffee zones, while agroforestry systems such as those in Zona da Mata retained more stable moisture levels even during droughts.

“This is the paradox at the heart of the crisis: coffee’s destruction of forests today is killing the climate it needs to grow tomorrow,” it said. Modelling suggests that under mid-range emissions scenarios, Brazil could lose up to two-thirds of its suitable Arabica coffee land by 2050.