Plant-heavy diet proposed by EAT-Lancet Commission may deepen nutrition deficiency: Report

Global adoption of the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission diet, which emphasises plant-based foods like whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes with only modest amounts of fish and dairy as well as limited meat consumption, by 2050, could help slow the increase in prices of some food commodities but may also deepen nutrient deficiencies in low-income settings if not paired with targeted nutrition interventions, a new study has found. 

Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and collaborating institutions undertook the study to model how adopting EAT-Lancet diet could affect calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrient availability, and food prices. 

The study Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: an economic modelling analysis, published in the October issue of The Lancet Planetary Health journal, found that if the sustainable diet as per the 2025 EAT Lancet report was adopted, global calorie availability would drop by 22 per cent, to 2,376 kilo calories (kcal) per person per day by 2050, when compared to 2020. This aligned with the commission report target of approximately 2,400 kcal / person / day but was below the availability of 3,050 kcal / person / day by 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario.  

The EAT-Lancet Commission report released in early October had found that a global shift towards “healthier” diets could cut non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, such as methane, from agriculture by 15 per cent by 2050. The healthy diet concept was first introduced in the 2019 report from the EAT-Lancet Commission and the subsequent findings build on the same report.

But the new IFPRI analysis once again brings to the forefront critical concerns about the unintended consequences of broad-scale dietary shifts on lower- or middle-income countries and vulnerable populations. 

The new study found that even if caloric needs were met, transitioning to a 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet might not ensure micronutrient adequacy. While improvements could be seen in nutrient availability for folate, iron and zinc, there could be a possible decline in vitamin A nutrient availability driven by lower intake of animal-source foods and roots and tubers, the findings showed.

In addition, the paper also said that while in 2020 the share of income spent on food was 42 per cent in lower-income countries, compared with 21 per cent in higher-income countries, by 2050, this share reduced to 25 per cent and 9 per cent in lower-income and higher-income countries, respectively. 

This gap was slightly narrowed but the share of income spent on food remained relatively high in lower-income regions. So, populations in these countries will continue to have less flexibility in their household budgets to shift their existing food basket towards the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission-recommended diet. 

“These disparities suggest the need for structural policy responses, such as investments in public food provisioning, especially for fruits and vegetables and legumes, nuts and seeds in lower-income countries, which could help ease the pressure on household food budgets under the SSP2+DIET scenario (sustainable diet as suggested by EAT Lancet report),” said the study. 

Lead author Abhijeet Mishra, associate research fellow in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modelling Unit, said diet aligned with the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission recommendations could bring mixed nutritional outcomes for some populations, adding that this underscored concerns about affordability. 

“South Asia and Eastern Africa could see increases in the share of household incomes spent on food because of shifts toward costlier items such as animal-sourced products, fruits and vegetables, for which the historical consumption levels are usually below 2025 EAT-Lancet targets,” he said. 

The report highlighted that dietary transition strategies needed careful, local co-design to avoid inadvertent widening of nutrient and affordability gaps, Mishra noted.