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New study warns large parts of the Amazon could shift into degraded forest at 1.5-1.9°C of warming
Researchers say deforestation and climate change together are weakening the rainforest’s resilience
Around 17-18% of the Amazon has already been lost, pushing the biome closer to a tipping point
Forest loss could disrupt rainfall systems and trigger drought across agricultural regions in South America
Scientists say halting deforestation and restoring degraded forests are critical to avoiding large-scale collapse
Climate change and deforestation together could push two-thirds of the Amazon rainforest towards critical ecological breakdown at lower levels of global warming than previously estimated, a new study has found.
The research, published in the journal Nature on May 6, 2026, has warned that the Amazon may undergo destabilising shifts not from warming alone, but from multiple pressures occurring simultaneously — including rising temperatures, deforestation, drought and forest degradation.
These combined stresses are weakening the rainforest’s resilience and pushing it closer to a tipping point at which it could begin driving its own decline, said the researchers from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in their study.
The study found that if deforestation rises to around 22 per cent-28 per cent alongside global warming of 1.5-1.9 degrees Celsius (°C), close to a third of the Amazon could transition into degraded forest systems. This is lower than previous Earth system model estimates, which projected critical thresholds between 2°C and 6°C of warming.
Like other endangered biomes, Amazon forests are showing signs of decreasing resilience with increased droughts, loss of biodiversity, degradation and deforestation, the study noted. The biome is also losing its natural ability to sequester carbon to become a carbon source.
The authors said the Amazon is increasingly showing signs of ecological stress, including more frequent droughts, biodiversity loss and declining recovery from extreme events.
“Direct and indirect stressors, such as deforestation and increases in extreme drought events, may be self-amplified by the forest system itself,” the study noted. “Thus, it is considered a tipping element of the Earth system whereby critical transitions may occur if local thresholds are crossed, which could trigger self-amplified changes as stabilising feedbacks shift to destabilising ones.”
Researchers found that severe deforestation scenarios could trigger damaging transitions across up to 77 per cent of the Amazon forest, even under moderate emissions pathways. Around 17 per cent-18 per cent of the Amazon has already been lost, bringing the forest closer to the identified danger zone.
The study warned that deforestation in eastern parts of the basin could produce “spatial knock-on effects”, where drying and forest loss in one region trigger instability and drought in distant parts of the rainforest.
Scientists said major changes in the Amazon would affect atmospheric moisture transport far beyond the forest itself.
The rainforest plays a critical role in recycling moisture through evapotranspiration, which is the process by which trees absorb water from soil and release it back into the atmosphere through their leaves. According to the study, up to 50 per cent of the Amazon’s rainfall is generated within the basin itself through this recycling process.
Large canopy trees are particularly important, contributing around 71 per cent of transpired water and recycling roughly 26 per cent of rainfall back into the atmosphere. Widespread tree loss could reduce rainfall and delay the onset of wet seasons across parts of South America, the research warned.
“Over-all, trees recycle around 36 per cent of precipitation through transpiration, substantially exceeding interception evaporation rates that amount to 22 per cent of recycled moisture. Moreover, the forest’s transpiration during the late dry season critically determines the onset of the wet season, meaning that deforestation can delay the wet season and reduce,” the study said.
This could affect agricultural regions in southern Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay and the Río de la Plata basin in Argentina, downwind areas that are heavily dependent on stable rainfall patterns.
A previous study published in 2025 found that moisture originating from Brazilian forests supports agricultural regions across several South American countries that together account for nearly 10 per cent of global crop exports.
The study found that cascading moisture loss — where forest decline in one area affects rainfall in another — is now the dominant driver of transition risk under climate change scenarios. Researchers projected the highest risks in western and south-western parts of the Amazon, which depend heavily on rainfall recycled from other forest regions.
High-risk areas were associated with annual rainfall dropping below 1,850 mm per year or cumulative water deficits exceeding 225 mm annually.
Without further deforestation, the study found that the critical warming threshold for widespread destabilisation could rise to 3.7-4°C. The researchers said this underlined the importance of both limiting global warming to below 1.5°C and halting deforestation.
They added that restoring degraded forests could help rebuild the Amazon’s moisture recycling system faster than biodiversity itself can recover, potentially reducing the risk of large-scale ecological collapse.
