Lok Sabha 2024: Is it too hot to vote?

On 22 April 2024, the Election Commission of India held a meeting with officials from the India Meteorological Department to discuss measures aimed at protecting voters from heatwaves, which are expected to intensify as summer progresses in India.

In this context, what impact do rising temperatures have on voter turnout in the general elections 2024? Although it is challenging to quantify the exact effect of rising temperatures, Down To Earth (DTE) has attempted to provide some perspective.

Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated that of the 540 parliamentary constituencies analysed, 96 per cent (or 519 constituencies) experienced a temperature increase during the first phase of the election, which took place on April 19, 2024, compared with the 30-year average from 1981 to 2010.

Apart from a few constituencies in the northern part of the country — like Ladakh — and a few pockets in the northeast and south, such as Haveri, Shivamogga, Devanagere, Dharwad and Bagalkot, all from Karnataka, most other constituencies reported a temperature increase to some degree.

Interestingly, DTE found that a few constituencies in Rajasthan, including Barmer, Jalore, Pali, Rajsamand and Bhilwara, had actually experienced a drop in temperature.

When it comes to temperature rises, the Indo-Gangetic Plains and the Rayalaseema region in the south emerged as significant hotspots.

DTE also examined the relationship between temperature changes and the 102 constituencies that voted on April 19, 2024.

While the analysis did not explicitly establish a direct correlation between rising temperatures and voter turnout, there were some notable patterns. In Tamil Nadu, for instance, seven of the 39 constituencies reported an increase in voter turnout compared with 2019. When their voter turnout data was compared with temperature data, all seven of these constituencies had reported temperature increases of varying degrees.

Similarly, in Bastar, Chhattisgarh, and surrounding constituencies, an increase in voter turnout was noted during the first phase, while these same constituencies also reported temperature increases on April 19, 2024.

Considering the patterns identified, a question arises: is heat playing any role in this election, or were the Election Commission of India’s heat-related concerns unfounded?

While the analysis showed an inverse relationship between temperature increases and voter turnout in some constituencies, DTE’s findings indicated that 87 out of 102 experienced a direct correlation between rising temperatures and a decrease in voter turnout.