The Western Ghats, a UNESCO World Heritage site, is one of India’s most ecologically sensitive regions, renowned for their incredible biodiversity and environmental importance. In 2011, the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel, led by Madhav Gadgil, produced a pivotal report outlining necessary measures to protect this delicate ecosystem. The report highlighted Wayanad as a high-risk area for natural disasters like landslides and recommended strict safeguards to prevent such tragedies.

The recent devastating landslide in Wayanad, which occurred in a zone marked as Ecologically Sensitive Zone 1 (ESZ1) by the Gadgil Report, claimed hundreds of lives and severely affected countless others. It served as a stark reminder of the dangers of neglecting scientific recommendations for the sake of short-term economic benefits.

The Gadgil Report was not just a set of academic recommendations; it was a crucial guide intended to shape policies, ensure sustainable development and protect communities from foreseeable risks. By disregarding these scientifically-backed recommendations, we are not just overlooking expert advice — we are undermining the very purpose of such reports: To prevent disasters and safeguard lives.

This raised a fundamental question: If the knowledge and warnings of experts are disregarded, what is the purpose of constituting such panels in the first place? The creation of expert panels and reports is intended to inform policy and protect communities, but when their guidance is side-lined, the very purpose of such exercises is defeated.

This issue goes beyond environmental concern and directly affects fundamental rights. Article 21 of the Indian Constitution guarantees the right to life and personal liberty, which the Supreme Court has interpreted to include the right to a healthy environment. In the landmark case of MC Mehta vs Union of India (1987), the court emphasised that environmental protection is integral to the right to life, directing the closure and relocation of harmful industries to protect public health and the environment. The ongoing degradation of the Western Ghats and the resulting human tragedy directly violate this constitutional right.

It is both ironic and alarming that the legal principle of ignorantia juris non excusat — or “ignorance of the law is no excuse” — holds people accountable for failing to know the law, yet the deliberate ignorance of scientific expertise by those in power is even more troubling. Ignoring critical warnings from experts, especially when these warnings have serious implications, reveals dangerous negligence.

The decision to ignore the Gadgil Report’s recommendations, driven by economic and political interests, not only dismisses scientific wisdom but also challenges Article 21 of the Indian Constitution. It is the judiciary’s role to protect these rights and to ensure that decisions made in the political and economic arenas do not infringe upon the fundamental rights of individuals.

The economic gains from exploiting ecologically sensitive areas cannot justify the immense loss of human lives. The real cost of ignoring expert knowledge and constitutional duties is borne by those who are supposed to be protected. The tragedy in Wayanad is not an isolated case but a reflection of a troubling pattern of negligence and misplaced priorities.

Impact of climate change and deforestation on Wayanad

“In today’s climate, which is 1.3°C warmer than it would have been at the beginning of the industrial period, an event of this magnitude is expected to occur about once every 50 years,” according to a rapid analysis conducted by 24 universities and meteorological agencies in India, Malaysia, the United States, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Scientists have also noted that a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover in Wayanad may have contributed to the increased susceptibility of the slopes during heavy rain events.

Deforestation is the most pronounced land-use change in the district. Between 1950 and 2018, Wayanad lost 62 per cent of its forest cover, with tea plantation areas increasing by around 1,800 per cent, resulting in reduced forest cover to stabilise the hills. While the linkage between land cover and land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is mixed in the limited existing studies, factors such as quarrying for building materials and the significant reduction in forest cover may have contributed to the increased susceptibility of the slopes to landslides during heavy rainfalls.

The Wayanad disaster exemplifies how the climate crisis is playing out in real-time. Mariam Zachariah, a researcher at the Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, stated that the extreme burst of rain that dislodged an entire hillside and buried hundreds of people was intensified by human-caused warming. Until the world replaces fossil fuels with renewable energy, monsoon downpours will continue to intensify, bringing landslides, floods and misery to India.

To quantify the role of the human-induced climate crisis, researchers used both observational data and climate models with high enough resolution to capture precipitation over the relatively small study region. Overall, the available climate models indicate a 10 per cent increase in intensity, and in a future warming scenario where the global temperature is 2°C higher than pre-industrial levels, climate models predict even heavier single-day rainfall events, with a further increase of about 4 per cent in rainfall intensity.

Given the small mountainous region with complex rainfall-climate dynamics, there is a high level of uncertainty in the model results. However, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events is in line with a large and growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the physical understanding that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier downpours.

Scientists have warned that the increase in climate change-driven rainfall is likely to increase the potential number of landslides that could be triggered in the future. India should, thus, prioritise the reinforcement of susceptible slopes, landslide early warning systems and the construction of retaining structures to protect vulnerable localities.

Role of land-use and land cover change

The main cause of the loss of forest cover between 1982 and 2012 in Wayanad is forest fires. There were 316 fire incidents, mainly due to human-induced causes, in the Wayanad Wildlife Sanctuary between 2001 and 2011. As a result, the forest cover was significantly reduced by 2012. The decrease in cultivation from 1982-2012 occurred as the multi-cropping pattern was replaced by mono-cropping or plantation-type cultivation. In summary, there has been a 51 per cent decrease in forest cover during 1950-2012, while plantation cover increased by 1,329 per cent during the same time.

Capturing LULCC is difficult in India as the Forest Survey of India fails to distinguish between “natural” forests and human-made plantations. Ravindranath et al (2014) pointed out how forest cover is over-reported in India by including plantations and fruit orchards along with the under-reporting of deforestation. Scientists have strongly objected to considering plantations as "forests," stating that "plantations are not forests" and calling them "biological deserts".

Kerala’s plantation / trees outside forests (TOF) constitutes 53.13 per cent of its total forest cover, according to the India State of Forest Report, volume II, published by the Forest Survey of India (Union Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change).

The scientific community explained, where these plantations and crops are grown as monoculture, there is variable and generally less ground cover, reduced fertility, deteriorated soil structure and insignificant rooting strength, compared to tropical forests that previously occupied the hillslopes. Thus, the conversion of forests to agricultural lands can have significant effects on both surface and landslide erosion.

The rates of surface erosion on steep forest lands that have been converted to agriculture, single-story plantations, and pasture depend on the extent to which dynamic management practices (with or without conservation measures) disturb and compact the soil, alter ground cover and modify soil properties, thus lowering the rainfall-surface runoff threshold.

The spatial extent of surface erosion in converted landscapes is also the product of the mosaic of land use activities and how these changes in time and space related to the distribution as well as recovery of soil hydraulic properties and ground cover.

Landslide erosion in converted sites is more affected by the processes of root strength decay, undercutting or construction of steep slopes and re-routing and concentration of water onto susceptible sites.

The lives lost in Wayanad should prompt us to uphold our constitutional commitments and respect the critical insights of scientific experts. The ongoing degradation of the Western Ghats and the resulting human tragedy directly violate the fundamental rights guaranteed by Article 21 of the Indian Constitution.

Ignoring critical warnings from experts reveals dangerous negligence and the decision to ignore the Gadgil Report's recommendations, driven by economic and political interests, not only dismisses scientific wisdom but also challenges our constitutional obligations.

Policymakers must recognise the importance of sustainable practices and protective measures as outlined in the Gadgil Report. Protecting the Western Ghats is not only an environmental necessity but also a constitutional obligation.

We must advocate for a change in our development policies, one that values both environmental sustainability and human rights. By doing so, we can prevent future tragedies and ensure that our development is both responsible and respectful of our rights and natural heritage.

Nitin Ram is a PhD student with the University of Hyderabad, specialising in sustainability management. Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth.

Simply Put: Wayanad farce