Subscribe
The world’s most populous country is in a demographic quagmire. India’s birth rate is falling at a baffling pace. The dip is being grudgingly celebrated as the ultimate population control success. For the world, which is seeing a similar decline in birth rate, the news from India has symbolised a defusing of the proverbial population bomb that had been ticking ever since the 18th century English cleric-economist Thomas Malthus propounded his ideas on the dangers of unchecked population growth.
The recently released sixth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) puts India’s total fertility rate (TFR) at 2.0. This is below the replacement level of 2.1, which is the average number of children a woman needs to have in her reproductive age (15-49 years) to maintain the population level. TFR above the replacement level means population growth, while that below means population decline. This is the second consecutive round of NFHS when the national TFR has remained same. The previous round, NFHS-5 (2019-21), had also recorded the same TFR of 2.0.
According to NFHS-6, a total of 28 states and Union Territories have fertility rates below the replacement level, while 26 states and Union Territories have fertility rates even below the national average of 2.0. Only seven states and Union Territories—Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh and Lakshadweep—have TFR at or above the replacement level of 2.1. There is also a significant gap between rural and urban fertility rates. While the TFR for urban areas is 1.6, the figure for rural areas stands at 2.1. Bihar has the country’s highest TFR of 2.7 while Andaman and Nicobar the lowest at 0.9. Earlier, in May, the “Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024”, published by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, estimated the country’s TFR to be 1.9 in 2024. That year, Bihar recorded the highest TFR (2.9), while Delhi had the lowest (1.2).
According to the UN population reports, India’s fertility rate—from more than five children in 1950 to two children now—has dipped faster than the global average. The country has reached below replacement-level fertility fastest among the nations that have reached this threshold. India’s current fertility rate nearly compares with that of the developed countries of the world.
The country’s birth rate has been dipping over decades. But in recent years it has witnessed a steep decline. Across the six NFHS rounds starting from the first one in 1992-93, TFR has been on a slide: from 3.4 in the first round to 2.2 in the fourth round. For the first time, it slipped below the replacement level in the fifth round. The number of birth per year has been declining—from around 23.5 million in 2020 to 23 million in 2025—and is projected to decline consistently. Moradhvaj Dhakad, a researcher at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, while speaking to The Indian Express, said that India achieving below replacement rate fertility now was not expected now but in 2030-35.
However, the low fertility rate will not immediately result in population decline. The population will continue to grow due to the phenomena known as demographic momentum, which happens due to the age structure of the people. If a country has a huge young demography, the population grows as youngsters grow and have children, even if each individual has fewer babies. In India, the number of women in reproductive age had been increasing until 2011. Even now, females under the age of 14 years account for one-fourth of India’s population. This demographic momentum is estimated to contribute around 70 per cent of the current population growth.
Nonetheless, the dipping fertility rate heralds a phase of population stabilisation—the precursor to population decline. “India is set to witness a sharp slowdown in population growth in the next two decades. Although the country as a whole will enjoy the demographic dividend phase, some States which are in the advanced stage of demographic transition will witness transition to an ageing society as early as 2030s,” stated “Economic Survey 2018-19”. Population projections at the national and state levels up to 2041 show that India has entered the next stage of demographic transition, with population growth set to slow sharply in the next two decades.
“Economic Survey 2018-19” also said that “both the trajectory of population and population growth will vary across States. States ahead in the demographic transition will witness a continued deceleration in population growth and reach near-zero growth rates by 2031-41. States lagging behind in the demographic transition will also witness a marked slowdown in population growth during 2021-41”.
The age bracket of 0-19 years is already past its “peak”. This age group’s share in total population is set to be just 25 per cent in 2041, from 41 per cent in 2011. Share of the elderly population (60 years and above) will steadily rise—from 8.6 per cent in 2011 to 16 per cent in 2041. Various estimates indicate that the current annual working-age population growth of 9.7 million will more than half to 4.2 million per year during 2031-41.
According to a population projection for 2021-2051 by the International Institute of Migration and Development, Kerala, the number of children (0-14 age group) will come down to 322 million by 2031…
This article is part of the cover story "India's sudden baby bust", originally published in the September 1-15, 2026 print edition of Down To Earth