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A new study has projected that by 2050, the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity in sub-Saharan Africa will increase by 254.8 per cent.
The study, published in the journal The Lancet on March 3, 2025, highlighted alarming trends in overweight and obesity rates globally, with sub-Saharan Africa expected to experience one of the most significant increases.
Overweight is defined as excessive fat accumulation, while obesity is a chronic and complex disease characterised by excessive fat deposits that can impair health.
According to the study, Nigeria is forecast to have 141 million adults with overweight and obesity by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population affected by the condition.
The study analysed historical trends in overweight and obesity across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 and forecast future trajectories up to 2050. It found that rates of overweight and obesity increased at global, regional and national levels between 1990 and 2021.
By 2021, an estimated 1 billion adult males and 1.11 billion adult females were living with overweight and obesity. Eight countries — China, India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Egypt — accounted for more than half of the global population affected. China recorded the highest number of individuals with overweight and obesity (402 million), followed by India (180 million) and the United States (172 million).
The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was reported in Oceania, North Africa and the Middle East, with several countries exceeding an 80 per cent prevalence among adults. Among women, Egypt is projected to have the highest prevalence (96.0 per cent), followed by Tonga (95.5 per cent). Among men, the highest prevalence is expected in the United Arab Emirates (94.2 per cent) and Nauru (94.2 per cent).
By 2050, the study forecasts that nearly two in three adults over the age of 25 will have overweight and obesity. The most significant increases in age-standardised overweight and obesity rates are expected in South Asia, East Asia and central and eastern sub-Saharan Africa.
For women, prevalence is forecast to increase by 59.8 per cent in South Asia, 58.6 per cent in central sub-Saharan Africa and 57.9 per cent in East Asia. Among men, the increases are projected to be even higher, with an 84.9 per cent rise in South Asia, 75.7 per cent in central sub-Saharan Africa and 67.7 per cent in eastern sub-Saharan Africa.
The study warned that without targeted interventions, disparities in overweight and obesity will exacerbate existing health inequities. Although obesity has been on the global health agenda for over two decades, many countries have struggled to translate strategic plans into effective action.
In 2021, only 40 per cent of countries had an operational policy, strategy, or action plan to address overweight and obesity. In low-income countries, policy coverage fell to below 10 per cent.
The study emphasised the urgent need for aggressive and targeted measures to tackle this crisis, as obesity is one of the most preventable health risks, posing an unprecedented threat of premature disease and death on local, national and global scales.