A senior official of the Tripura government has rubbished the raging claim made by a section of Bangladesh media that the opening of Dumbur dam in Tripura, located on River Gumti about 120 kilometres upstream to Bangladesh border, has triggered the acute flood condition in about 11 districts in Bangladesh, affecting millions.

On Thursday, an official of Bangladesh’s disaster management and relief informed that so far the ravaging flood has affected nearly 5.8 million people in 11 districts of the country, leaving at least 1.2 million homeless and killing 31.

The claim has ignited the already tense geopolitical relationship between the current governments of Bangladesh and India, after the student-led anti-discriminatory movement overthrew the Awami league government and its leader, former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, took refuge in India.

Recent release of a high volume of water through all gates of Farakka Barrage into Bangladesh has added fuel to fire.

The Bangladeshi politicians and experts are divided over attribution of the flood — while some have been accusing India of “opening” the dam without prior intimation, others pointed out that it may have only added to the situation caused by record rainfall in the last week. Another section was of the belief that the dam opening had little to do with the flood.

Indian experts also stated that the dam, which hardly produces about five megawatts of electricity at its peak, has little role in magnifying Bangladesh’s recent flood. They opined that the event has been blown out of proportion due to the present political situation.

A government of India communication, accessed by this author, claimed that “realtime flood data to Bangladesh” was transmitted to Bangladesh as per bilateral protocol; while most Bangladesh experts, including environment and water advisor in current Bangladeshi regime, Rizwana Hasan, hinted that India had not supplied adequate flood related data at appropriate time.

The Indian government has also strongly countered the allegation levelled by a section of Bangladeshi media, alleging that India has opened all the gates in Farakka barrage in West Bengal without any prior intimation. “We have witnessed the use of fake videos, rumours and fear-mongering to create misunderstanding,” Randhir Jaiswal, external affairs spokesperson, said recently. He claimed it was a normal seasonal development and relevant data was shared with joint river commission officials concerned in Bangladesh on a regular and timely basis.

However, several experts on both sides argued that the two countries, which share 54 transboundary rivers officially and many more as per unofficial estimates, must engage more on sharing river data, riding over the political acrimony generated in the post-Hasina era.

“The opening of the Dumbur dam had little role to play as the volume of water gushing out was too little to cause a flood. But the incident underlined the need to have more formal river data and information sharing between the countries,” opined economist and river expert Nilanjan Ghosh, head of think tank Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata. “Its all about the politics post Hasina and expression of anger against India; the alleged dam opening is being used just to further fuel the sentiment,” opined a senior Indian bureaucrat who worked in Bangladesh during the Hasina era.

No truth in claim, we supplied data: India

“The Dumbur dam, which was set up three years after Bangladesh’s independence, has been opening over the last 50 years automatically, whenever the water level crosses 94 metres; there is also over the top spilling. Exactly that has happened recently; as happened a number of times before including earlier this year; hence the scope of providing any prior information does not stand,” explained Kiran Gitte, public works department secretary, Tripura, on the issue.

The official further pointed out that the gushing water has caused more damage to Tripura, leading to huge losses. “Bangladesh border is almost 120 km away and, before that, Tripura had been severely affected. Because of the undulating terrain, the water actually tends to be retained within our area,” further explained the official.

“All 11 rivers in Tripura were flowing over the danger point, a record; moreover, there were landslides in about 2,000 places; 800-900 roads were damaged; we also lost 31 lives so far,” said the official, underlining the impact in Tripura.

A press note from India’s ministry of external affairs, on August 22, was categorical.

“We have seen concerns being expressed in Bangladesh that the current situation of flood in districts on the eastern borders of Bangladesh has been caused by the opening of the Dumbur dam upstream of the Gumti river in Tripura. This is not factually correct,” read the statement, release adding that “the catchment areas of Gumti river that flows through India and Bangladesh have witnessed the heaviest rains of this year over the last few days (and) the flood in Bangladesh is primarily due to waters from these large catchments downstream of the dam.”

“Along the about 120 km river course (from Dumbur dam to the Bangladesh border), we have three water level observation sites at Amarpur, Sonapura and Sonapura 2 … Amarpur station is part of a bilateral protocol, under which we are transmitting real time flood data to Bangladesh,” stated the release. It further pointed out that “…Data showing rising trend has been supplied to Bangladesh till 3pm on August 21, 2024. At 6pm, due to flooding, there was a power outage leading to communication problems. Still, we have tried to maintain communication through other means created for urgent transmission of data.”

Data underpins India’s claim

Data, accessed by this correspondent, also substantiates India’s claim. The measuring data showed that on August 22, at 8.05 pm, the water level of Gumti river at Udaipur gauge station, almost midway between Dumbur dam and Bangladesh border, was 22.5 metres; at least 0.5 metre above the ‘extreme danger’ level and over 2 metres above the designated flood level.

Incidentally, at Sonapura gauge station, which is the last Indian measuring point before the river enters Comilla in Bangladesh and less than 2 km from the border, the water level at 2 am on August 23 – the water is expected to take six hours to reach Sonamura from Udaipur - was 14.32 metres, 0.3 metre above the extreme danger level but slightly lower compared to Udaipur situation; as the floodwaters had spread across Tripura. The highest level reached in Sonamura since August third week was 14.35 m at about 6 am on August 23; and was still flowing over the flood stage level of 12 m this afternoon.

“Two things were clear from the data; first the impact of record rain in the region, and secondly the water level actually receded slightly before it entered Bangladesh,” pointed out an expert.

India responsible; claims Bangladesh

“This flood is not natural, it's human-made. India is conspiring against the Bangladesh people for last 15 years; the recent purposeful release of flood water through the dam is in continuation to that,” opined Nachiruddin, general secretary of Chatro league, the student unit of Bangladesh Nationalist Party, while distributing reliefs in the highly affected Laxmipur area in Bangladesh recently.

Experts are more circumspect. “I do not think that opening of the dam is fully responsible for the flood situation in Bangladesh, as the affected part of our country received three times the rainfall within two days compared to what is expected in a month. Moreover there are issues like narrowing of the river with embankment, encroachment and likewise; but release of water from Dumbur dam definitely added to the problem, even if in a small degree,” opined Manjur Ahmed Chowdhury, former chairman of national river commission in Bangladesh.

Md Azaz, chairman of non profit River and Delta Research Centre, also claimed to this correspondent that timely water release communication from India could have minimised the flood impact and alleged that the erstwhile Hasina government had never prioritised the water issues with India and only hobnobbed on political and economic interests.

Ainun Nishat, emeritus professor in BRAC university and one of the frontline water experts in Bangladesh, felt the opening of the Dumbroo dam has little to do with the ongoing flood in Bangladesh.

“Both Tripura in India and districts like Feni, Noakhali, Comilla and Sylhet in Bangladesh had received several times over the normal rainfall in late August; the timing of the rain also made the situation complicated as most of the water bodies and river were already filled up to the brink; and hence the flood happened,” explained Nishat.

The senior technocrat accepted that the Dumbur dam opens automatically if the water level crosses a certain limit; and reminded that the situation could have been far worse in case the dam got broken down and entire retained water surged downstream.

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