Subscribe
Cyclone Dana turned into a severe cyclone during the night of October 23 itself, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather agency had earlier predicted that the cyclone would intensify into a severe cyclone by the morning of October 24. There are some indications that the storm may turn even more severe.
Cyclone Dana gained at least 27 kilometres per hour (km/hr) of wind speeds in a span of 18 hours on October 23. It strengthened into a cyclone, with wind speeds of at least 62 km/hr, around 5:30 am on October 23. By around 11:30 pm, it had further intensified into a severe cyclone, with wind speeds of at least 89 km/hr.
On October 24, at 5:30 am, Cyclone Dana had peak wind speeds of 95-105 km/hr. This means that the storm gained 43 km/hr in a span of 24 hours. Even though this gain in wind speed does not qualify as ‘rapid intensification’, it still is a considerable intensification within a day.
IMD expects the cyclone to gain a further 10 km/hr by the evening of October 24 and then decrease a little bit before landfall along the Odisha coast, close to Bhitarkanika National Park and Dhamra Port.
Cyclone Dana would still carry peak winds with speeds between 100 km/hr and 110 km/hr, with gusts of up to 120 km/hr which could wreak destruction along the coast.
Some other estimates suggest that the wind speeds may be a bit higher. For instance, Biswajit Sahoo, a research scholar at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, told Down To Earth (DTE) that “there may be slightly more intensification of Cyclone Dana, with peak wind speeds between 120 km/hr and 130 km/hr around 5:30 pm today.”
“The reasons for this are favourable conditions such as low vertical wind shear in the region around the cyclone,” said Sahoo.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of United States Navy has also said in its update on Cyclone Dana that the peak wind speeds would be closer to 120 km/hr. This would categorise Dana as a ‘very severe cyclone’ rather than just a ‘severe cyclone’.
The cyclone is also going to recurve towards interior Odisha, bringing a lot of rainfall for many areas. “Usually, cyclones move in a north-northwest direction after landfall. But currently, there is an anticyclone or a high-pressure ridge over Madhya Pradesh which would not allow this normal movement. Hence, it would move in a southwestern direction after it crosses Jajpur in Odisha,” explained Sahoo.
DTE has earlier reported about the reasons for intense rainfall that Cyclone Dana may carry.
The landfall would happen around Bhitarkanika National Park as indicated by IMD. The national park is known for its mangroves, saltwater crocodiles, Olive Ridley turtles and many bird species, including migratory species.
The weather analysis and visualisation platform Windy, using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts, is currently showing that the landfall may happen further south towards Paradip. But Sahoo contends that this may not be the case.