Unusually warm winters, post-monsoon season: DTE analyses IMD report on 2023 as India’s second warmest year ever

In 2023, India experienced its second-warmest year on record, with an average temperature 0.65 degrees Celsius higher than the average baseline set between 1981 and 2010, stated the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its annual climate summary of India, released recently.

While 2023 undoubtedly brought the heat, it fell just short of the all-time high established in 2016. That year, India experienced an annual temperature anomaly of 0.71°C above the long-term average.

Five warmest years on record

Notably, all five of India’s warmest years have occurred within the last 14 years.

In 2023, temperatures across India typically stayed within ±1°C of the norm for mean, minimum and maximum temperatures. The IMD report revealed that for 10 months of the year, monthly mean temperatures were higher than average. 

Read more: 2023 warmest year on record

However, in April and May, temperatures were either normal or slightly below average, with anomalies of 0.1°C and -0.27°C, respectively.

The report also highlighted warming trends: Between 1901 and 2023, the average annual mean temperature rose by 0.66°C every 100 years. In 2023, there was a significant increase in both the maximum temperature (1.01°C/100 years) and the minimum temperature (0.31°C/100 years).

Unusually warm winters

The winter season was unusually warm in 20 states/Union territories, with Himalayan states also experiencing warmer nights.

This was because of an exceptionally warm winter season (+0.83°C from January to February), monsoon season (+0.74°C from June to September) and post-monsoon season (+1°C from October to December).

In at least 20 states and territories, the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, or both, exceeded the normal by 2°C to 5°C during the winter season, which covers January and February.

Among these were nine states in the Himalayas, where the monthly maximum temperature surpassed the average by 2°C to 5°C in seven of them: Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Uttarakhand, Ladakh, Assam and Himachal Pradesh.

Read more: August, September & November warmest on record in India, winter temperatures to remain above normal: IMD

In the month of February, the maximum or daytime temperature in Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh was 5°C higher than average.

The monthly minimum temperature was 2°C to 4°C above average in nine states/UTs. In February, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh experienced nighttime temperatures 4°C and 3°C higher than average, respectively.

In January, temperatures remained slightly warmer than the average. However, February surpassed all previous records to become the warmest in 122 years. The maximum daytime temperature was the highest ever recorded and the minimum nighttime temperature was the fifth highest for the month of February in 122 years.

In 23 states/UTs, the average monthly maximum and lowest temperatures, or both, exceeded the normal by 2°C to 3°C during the monsoon season. These consist of 10 Himalayan states and in six of them, either the monthly maximum temperature (day-time) was 3°C higher than normal. These are: Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Himachal Pradesh and Meghalaya.

Read more: East and Northeast India recorded second-warmest July in over a century: IMD

Compared to 2022, when the season was warm with an anomaly of +1.06°C, the pre-monsoon season (+ 0.06°C from March to May) was normal according to the IMD. Nonetheless, maximum monthly temperatures in 18 states and UTs were 2°C to 3°C above normal. Jammu and Ladakh, two of the nine Himalayan states, saw monthly average maximum temperatures that were 3°C higher than normal.

Himalayan states are warmer than normal post monsoon 

In 28 states/UTs, during the post-monsoon season (October, November and December), the average monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, or both, were 2°C to 4°C above normal. This includes 12 of the 13 Himalayan states.

A closer look at the IMD report reveals that in 20 states/UTs, the monthly minimum temperature was 2-4°C higher than normal.

This indicates that this season’s night-time temperature had the largest deviation from the normal, with the minimum temperature in eight states — including three Himalayan ones — exceeding the  normal by 4°C: Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur.

Read more: At peak value of 2°C above average sea surface temperature, 2023-24 El Nino among strongest on record

The pre-monsoon season March to May was normal (+0.06°C) in comparison to the year 2022, when the season was warm with an anomaly of +1.06°C. However, 18 states/UTs recorded maximum temperatures that exceeded the normal by 2°C to 3°C. 

Nine of these states were Himalayan, which included Jammu and Ladakh, where the average maximum temperature (monthly) was 3°C above the normal.

High temperatures in Himalayan states

A closer examination of the minimum and maximum temperature data presented in the IMD report indicates that states in the ecologically fragile Himalayan region are experiencing warming trends and are vulnerable to severe impacts. 

For example, Himachal Pradesh, where temperatures exceeded normal levels in at least six months, witnessed the highest number of extreme weather events— 149 days, according to the analysis presented by Down to Earth in its interactive atlas of extreme weather events.

Read more: Extreme weather 2023: India is in for more disasters, without a doubt

The impacts of the warming year have been seen in other states too. For instance, in Karnataka, the temperatures exceeded the normal in at least nine months of the year 2023 and faced worst drought in the year where 223 of 236 taluks were declared as drought-hit.

Globally, March 2024 was the tenth month in a row to be the hottest on record and this may impact the  Himalayan states, as per a DTE analysis. When global temperatures rise above 1.5°C, the Himalayan states and UTs of India will suffer the most, it reported.

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