September monsoon forecast: IMD predicts excessive rainfall for south, west, central India

Rainfall may be up to 75% above normal; quick, intense spells can trigger floods

By Akshit Sangomla
Published: Friday 02 September 2022

Southwest monsoon rainfall in September will be above-normal in most of India with reducedprecipitation over the North East, some parts of east and northwest India, according to the latest forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). 

IMD predicted 75 per cent excess rainfall or more in many areas of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Mizoram. 

All these states have received excess or normal rainfall between June 1 and September 1, according to data from IMD. Many have faced floods that have impacted agriculture. 

There may be a repeat of sudden floods in Gujarat as seen in early July and flooding in Karnataka similar to that in August. 

The southern parts of Uttar Pradesh is projected to have more than 75 per cent excess rainfall, the northern parts would remain dry with rainfall deficit between 35 and 75 per cent. 

Sixty five out of the 75 districts of the state have deficient or large deficient rainfall as of September 1, 2022. 

Quick and intense bursts of rainfall in September may also lead to floods. The state is already reeling under floods with 1,111 villages across 18 districts affected, according to the disaster management division of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs. 

Rainfall may be 35-75 per cent deficient in parts of Ladakh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Meghalaya may also record 35-75 per cent rainfall deficit.

Many of these states have reported moderate to severe rainfall deficit this season. 

Manipur in North East India has the highest rainfall deficit in the country at 45 per cent, followed by Uttar Pradesh (44 per cent) and Bihar (38 per cent). Tripura and Jharkhand have 29 and 27 percent deficit in rainfall respectively. 

The major climatic conditions that may affect the monsoon rainfall are the La Niña phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), according to IMD. 

While the La Niña is in an active phase right now and generally enhances rainfall over the country, the Indian Ocean Dipole is evolving into its negative phase and may get established in the coming months. A negative IOD generally dampens rainfall over many parts of the country. 

The southwest monsoon starts departing from the country on September 17 and completely withdraws by October 15. But the withdrawal may get delayed because of La Niña, as was the case in 2020 and 2021, meteorologists projected. 

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