Liu Zhenmin of China and John Podesta of the United States to lead climate negotiations at COP29
After the United States and China officially launched the ‘Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s’ in January, announcements of new climate envoys for both countries have made headlines. The working group represents a resumption of bilateral talks between the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases after their announcement to restore cooperation (penned the Sunnylands Statement) in November last year.
Co-chaired by the US climate envoy John Kerry, the virtual meeting also announced the retirement of his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua. Former deputy foreign minister of China, Liu Zhenmin is to take over his position. News of John Kerry being succeeded by Democratic advisor and veteran climate diplomat John Podesta also came soon after.
The US and China have both long been key players in the arena of international climate politics. One of the key outcomes from the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai was the agreement by countries to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050.
The US and China are the world’s top emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their actions at multilateral climate platforms have had cascading effects across the global landscape.
The US has been the world’s biggest producer of oil since 2018, accounting for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Historically, the US has emitted more carbon dioxide than any country in the world, contributing to 25 per cent of total emissions from the pre-industrial period.
China’s emissions have soared over the last decades, with its present contribution comprising over a fourth of the world’s CO2 emissions. It is also the world’s leading emitter of methane, a greenhouse gas considered more potent than CO2.
The world has acknowledged the need to keep planetary heating to below 1.5 degrees Celsius and the decisions of influential countries warrant further scrutiny as the scramble to translate this commitment to reality ensues in this critical decade for climate action.
Liu Zhenmin served as the special advisor to the former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua at COP28 in Dubai last year. Zhenhua previously led China’s negotiations for 16 rounds of climate talks, playing a key role in the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
Zhenmin has also led the Chinese delegation several times in the past. The two were part of efforts that led to the pushing past of diplomatic deadlocks at COP28 as well. Liu is a fluent English speaker (unlike Zhenhua). He served as under-secretary-general of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA) between 2017 and 2022, during which time he worked on various issues, of which climate change was one.
Zhenmin has been regarded as a smart choice, despite his not being from China’s environment ministry, owing to his background in international diplomacy. He has been involved in climate negotiations for decades, including in the lead up to the finalisation of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. Zhenmin is going to be the face of China at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan in November this year.
The US’s John Podesta is going to succeed John Kerry after spring this year. Podesta is presently in charge of overseeing the rollout of US’s landmark climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and is also US President Joe Biden’s current clean energy advisor.
He will be the ‘senior adviser to the president for international climate policy’, a newly created position, a move likely made in an effort to circumvent the need for Senate confirmation to be appointed a special envoy, according to some analysts.
Recent developments in America, such as implementation of the IRA and the US’s announcement to pause on approvals for applications to export LNG until a review of their climate impacts is completed, are seen as examples of responsibilities that Podesta must carry out to match the US’s global commitments with its own domestic efforts at climate action. Among policy and environmental groups in America, he seems to be seen as the right man for the job.
However, given the increasing and well-deserved scrutiny on the US’s role as the world’s largest oil and gas producer, Podesta may need to clarify his position on the role of natural gas in the future of the US’s economy, in order to be taken seriously as a climate diplomat.
His views on natural gas as a bridge fuel, and close associations with individuals such as former US Secretary for Energy Ernest Moniz, who is known to have actively worked with the fossil fuel industry and previously been criticised for views that underplayed the impacts of fossil fuel extraction, will bring his climate credentials into question.
The US, as the largest historical emitter and a highly influential player in international negotiations, will (continue to) need strong action with proof of integrity to build trust within the international community.
Depending on the election results in the US in November this year, John Podesta could be the face of the American delegation at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. If Republican candidate Donald Trump (vocal climate denier) emerges victorious, there is uncertainty about the country’s participation in climate conferences, given that the last time he was President, the US actually pulled out of the Paris Agreement.
John Podesta and Liu Zhenmin have worked closely with their senior officials, who have been known to play key roles in bridging the gap between China and US in the year leading up to the Paris Agreement, a type of cooperation much needed as the world rapidly moves closer to 2050. Good relations between the two countries are key to ensure the upcoming negotiations are relatively smooth.
The politics of climate change, of course, form only a part of the broader US-China relations. US President Biden’s government has been credited with attempting to keep climate talks going despite recent developments in old contentious issues, such as the independence of Taiwan (the world’s leading manufacturer of semiconductors). The two countries’ relations have been overshadowed by their long-standing economic rivalry, ranging from competition in the manufacture of electronic chips to steel and beyond, despite their interdependence.
Still, agreements between the two prior to COP summits in the past have assisted in facilitating relatively quicker resolutions. COP29 is being touted as the ‘finance COP’ as the post-2025 climate finance goal is to be decided this year. As two significant countries that represent the developed and developing world at the annual climate change conferences, it will be useful to have agreement among them going in.
The topic of finance, much like ‘transitioning away’ from fossil fuels, is likely to stir up demands for ensuring equity and upholding necessary differentiation based on countries’ respective capabilities. How exactly these appointments influence the talks in the days to come remains to be seen.
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