Delhi could reach the peak during the third wave by the second week of January, according to a new modelling study by experts from Indian Institute of Science
A mathematical modelling has suggested that the cases caused by the omicron variant of the novel coronavirus would peak sometime by the third week of January. After this, the surge would start subsiding in early March.
The model takes into consideration past infection, vaccination and waning immunity, leaving either 30 per cent, 60 per cent or 100 per cent of the population susceptible. Past infection and vaccination leaves a fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant. The researchers then used the trajectory followed by the variant in South Africa.
The peak would be reached between the third and fourth week of January, depending on the percentage of people susceptible to the virus. Similarly, the surge would subside by the beginning of March to the end of March depending on the number of susceptible people.
COVID-19 case projections for India
The modelling study was performed by Siva Athreya, Rajesh Sundaresan and team at the Indian Institute of Science and Indian Statistical Institute, Bengaluru.
Depending on the different assumptions on susceptible people, there could be 300,000, 600,000 or 1 million cases daily. The researchers point out that this is lower than the cases reported during India’s second wave if only 30 per cent people are susceptible.
Some 2,135 people have been affected by the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the country as of January 5, 2022. The number could be higher as genome sequencing is done only on a few samples. Out of these cases, Maharashtra contributed 653 cases while Delhi contributed 464. India’s daily test positivity rate has reached 4.18 per cent.
Maharashtra, which is reporting the highest number of omicron cases, is likely to follow the national pattern and reach the peak by mid-January.
Delhi, which is currently reporting the second-highest number of cases of omicron, however, is likely to see the peak earlier. In the case of Delhi, the surge may peak by the second week of January and things may normalise by the end of the first week of February, if only 30 per cent of people are susceptible.
States and Union territories like Lakshadweep, Puducherry and Punjab will witness the peak in February, even if 30 per cent population is susceptible.
The projection by the team suggested a peak sooner than that suggested by researchers who are part of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee. The supermodel team predicts the peak to occur sometime in early February.
As of January 5, more than 35 million people in India have been affected by COVID-19 and more than 851 million people have received at least one dose of vaccine. Another 8.5 million teenagers between the ages of 15 and 18 years have received the first dose since the vaccination for the age group started January 3.
The country is preparing for the third wave with a slew of actions, including weekend and night curfews.
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