Science & Technology

Despite increasing probability of El Nino, IMD confident of good monsoon

Met department has also predicted a fairly uniform geographical distribution of monsoon

 
By DTE Staff
Last Updated: Wednesday 07 June 2017 | 06:35:50 AM
There is a 50 per cent probability of the monsoon being in normal range. Credit: Archit Ratan / Flickr
There is a 50 per cent probability of the monsoon being in normal range. Credit: Archit Ratan / Flickr There is a 50 per cent probability of the monsoon being in normal range. Credit: Archit Ratan / Flickr

The second stage long range forecast for the 2017 monsoon was released this evening by the India Meteorological Department. Keeping in line with the first stage forecast released in mid-April, the latest forecast predicts a normal monsoon season in 2017. Quantitatively, the IMD has put out a forecast of 98 per cent (± 4 per cent) of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Despite global models showing an increasing probability of an El Nino developing in the later stages of the Indian monsoon, the IMD seems confident of a good showing by the monsoon this year. The statistical model used by the IMD has thrown up a 50 per cent probability of the monsoon being in normal range while probabilities of the monsoon being below normal and deficient are 28 and 7 per cent respectively.

The experimental dynamic and statistical coupled model being run under the Monsoon Mission suggests that the monsoon shall be even better. According to the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) forecast, the country is set receive 100 ± 5 per cent of the LPA between June and September.

The met department has also predicted a fairly uniform geographical distribution of monsoon with season rainfall likely to be 96 per cent, 100 per cent, 99 per cent and 96 per cent over north-west India, Central India, Southern Peninsula and North-East India respectively, all with a model error of ± 8 per cent.

Rainfall during July and August is also likely to be 96 and 99 per cent of the LPA although with a large margin of error at ±9 per cent.

Category

Rainfall Range (% of LPA)

Forecast Probability (%)

Climatological Probability (%)

Deficient

<90

7

16

Below Normal

90-96

28

17

Normal

96-104

50

33

Above Normal

104-110

13

16

Excess

>110

2

17

 

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IEP Resources:

First stage forecast of southwest monsoon season-2017 rainfall

Weakening of Indian summer--monsoon rainfall due to changes in land use land cover

Impact of the upper tropospheric cooling trend over Central Asia on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Bay of Bengal cyclone tracks

On the decreasing trend of the number of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal

Variations in the cloud-base height over the central Himalayas during GVAX: association with the monsoon rainfall

Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

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