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The People’s Republic of China could be the biggest public funder of scientific research in about two years from now, an article in Nature has stated.
This is according to an analysis by researchers from Frontiers in Science and Innovation Policy (FSIP), a programme at the University of California, San Diego. FSIP studies the US research and development (R&D) system and examines the extent to which public and private funding boost technological development.
The researchers found that government spending on R&D in China increased by 90 per cent to $133 billion in the decade leading up to 2023. In contrast, public spending in the United States rose by just 12 per cent, to $155 billion.
The Nature article noted that as per the FSIP’s forecast, China’s public spending on research is likely to overtake that of the United States in the next two to three years.
“I think the earliest likely is 2028, plus [or] minus one year,” it quoted Robert Conn, a specialist in research policy and science philanthropy, who co-leads the FSIP. “It could be next year, could be 2029.”
Since the end of World War II, it is the United States that has been a global leader in R&D investment.
According to Meghan Ostertag, who studies economic policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a think tank in Washington DC, China taking the lead in public research spending would be a watershed moment as it would set the scene for the emergence of a new “hegemon” in science.
“In the past few years, China has already pulled ahead of the United States on various measures of research performance. In the 145 natural-science and health-science journals tracked by Nature Index, for instance, its contribution is on track to be double that of the United States by the end of 2026,” the Nature article noted.