There is a scarcity of people who can work and have the skills to do so
The story of migration is the story of humanity itself. The first migration which happened some 70,000 years ago could be called a distress migration, based on geological and paleoclimate evidence.
Human beings moved out from Africa, seeking food, water and a suitable climate to prosper. Back then, the planet was an open geographical mass without political boundaries.
But in the last 122 years, humans have altered the natural environment so much that another climate emergency has descended upon us. Though this time things are a lot different.
Today, we experienced an outrage over immigration. Restrictions are put in place and policies are being formed in the name of protecting the local economy and the local interests.
However, the latest World Development Report, published by the World Bank, says the world is in such a crisis that a new wave of migration among countries is needed for human survival.
Currently, there are 184 million migrants in the world. This is 2.3 per cent of the world’s population with 80 per cent of them being economic migrants, forming a defining workforce that dictates many countries’ prosperity. While five per cent of them are refugees.
Since 2014, nearly 50,000 people have died while attempting to migrate. This shows the desperation of people to migrate for survival. At the core of this crisis is the demographic change in the world.
There is a scarcity of people who can work and have the skills to do so. This is because of the fast ageing of the working population in high-income countries.
Italy for example, will have its population cut in half by the end of the century. Globally, the number of people over age 65 is already larger than the number of children under age 5.
In middle-income countries, the population is getting older before they attain a certain income level. The share of the elderly in their population is expected to double by 2050.
Lower-income countries on the other hand are going through an booming population. Like many other African countries, Niger saw its population grow from 3 million in 1960 to 24 million in 2020.
But still, the working group in lower-income countries lack the skills to exploit this void. Demographic changes have sparked an intensifying global competition for workers and talent, says the World Bank report.
It means the rich countries that sealed their borders to humans from the outside would have to open up again, not as a charity but as an existential necessity.
The middle-income countries will experience a situation where their own workers will have to compete with those who have to be brought in from outside.
And the poor and developing countries with a booming working-age population will have to undertake massive skill-development exercises to grab the opportunity that needs massive in and out-migration of people.
One way, the world is again looking at a situation when it has to seek out the suitable among its own species, though in a desperate way.
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