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As of 2025, 130 Metric ton (Mt) of plastic pollutes the environment — land, air and water — each year. Without ambitious global action, that figure will rise to 280 Mt by 2040, equivalent to dumping nearly a garbage truck worth of plastic waste every second, according to a new report produced by the Pew Charitable Trusts with the support of ICF International and thought partners the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Imperial College London, Systemiq and the University of Oxford.
According to the analysis titled Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025 - An Assessment of the Global System and Strategies for Transformative Change, this increase will be primarily driven by rapidly growing production and use of plastic, particularly in packaging and textiles.
Microplastics make up 13 per cent of global plastic pollution in 2025, with the largest sources being tyre wear and paint (10 Mt each), agriculture (3 Mt) and recycling (2 Mt).
The assessment reveals that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will surge. Plastic-related GHG emissions are expected to surge by 58 per cent, to 4.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year by 2040, equivalent to the emissions from one billion gasoline-powered cars. At the root of the problem is the fact that plastics are mostly derived from fossil fuels.
The document highlights that growth in plastic production will outpace waste management capacity.
It warns that annual primary plastic production will rise 52 per cent from 450 Mt in 2025 to 680 Mt in 2040, growing twice as fast as waste management, which, even with considerable investment, will expand by only 26 per cent.
By 2040, annual costs to collect and dispose of plastic would increase by 30 per cent to US$140 billion, requiring additional public funds and posing a financial risk to businesses. Despite this increased spending, the share of plastic waste that is uncollected will nearly double by 2040 from 19 per cent to 34 per cent.
The analysis also highlights a 75 per cent increase in modelled health impacts from plastic production and waste. A growing number of studies have linked plastic pollution and chemicals used in plastic products to health problems, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, asthma, decreased fertility and cognitive and developmental issues. To date, more than a quarter of the more than 16,000 chemicals used in plastic products have been identified as possible sources of harm to human health.
The report estimates that the world’s population will lose 5.6 million total years of healthy life in 2025 and 9.8 million years in 2040.
According to the report, System Transformation scenario reflects ambitious, complementary actions using existing solutions across the plastic system to cut production and use and improve waste management, which together could reduce annual plastic pollution by 83 per cent by 2040.
The recommended actions could cut annual production of new plastic by 44 per cent by 2040.
Transforming the global plastic system will provide workers with better jobs and working conditions and build the business models of the future – ones that are built on sustainability and fostering innovation to provide better-designed materials and products.
This amount of system-level change will require coordinated action by policymakers, businesses and researchers to tackle the foundational challenges that hinder progress.
The document outlines four strategic pillars with associated opportunities for government, the research community and business to achieve this goal: Establish measures to reduce plastic production and use; Rethink chemical, plastic product and system design; Expand participatory waste management systems; and Unlock transparency of the plastic supply chain and its impacts.
The report urges governments to move quickly on laws that reduce plastic production, mandate safer chemicals and target sources of microplastics pollution.