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The Centre’s recent decision to activate contingency plans across 315 districts following a 43 per cent rainfall deficit serves as a stark reminder of India’s continuing dependence on the monsoon. Particularly worrying is the identification of 111 districts with irrigation coverage below 25 per cent, making them highly vulnerable to prolonged dry spells and delayed rainfall.
While immediate concerns rightly focus on the ongoing kharif season, the larger policy question is whether India is adequately prepared for a future in which rainfall variability becomes more frequent and more intense.
The challenge is no longer merely about deficient rainfall. It is about water stress.
Over the past decade, climate scientists have repeatedly warned that global warming is likely to intensify hydrological extremes. The recent discussions around the possibility of stronger El Niño and even Super El Niño conditions in future years have further heightened concerns regarding rainfall variability in South Asia. Whether through delayed monsoons, prolonged dry spells, concentrated rainfall events, or recurring droughts, climate change is fundamentally altering India’s water landscape.
In this context, annual rainfall totals tell only part of the story. What ultimately determines resilience is the ability to capture, store, distribute, and manage water efficiently.
India has invested heavily in irrigation infrastructure since Independence and today possesses one of the largest irrigation networks in the world. Yet millions of farmers remain exposed to rainfall shocks. This paradox arises because irrigation access remains uneven across regions and, importantly, within irrigation systems themselves.
Recent findings from a nationwide study undertaken by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) for the Central Water Commission (CWC), covering 57 major irrigation projects across 20 states and nearly 10,000 rural households, provide important insights into this challenge. The study found that water stress exists even within command areas, but its intensity rises progressively from head reaches to tail reaches and becomes substantially higher in neighbouring non-command areas.
This finding has important implications for policy.
The conventional distinction between irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture often masks significant variations in actual water availability. Farmers located at the head reaches of canal systems generally enjoy relatively reliable access to irrigation water. In contrast, farmers in tail-end locations frequently face delayed releases, inadequate flows, and greater uncertainty regarding crop planning. During years of deficient rainfall, these disparities become even more pronounced.
Yet despite these challenges, command-area farmers generally remain better positioned than their counterparts outside irrigation commands. The NCAER-CWC study found that access to irrigation contributes not only to higher agricultural incomes but also to lower income volatility and greater livelihood diversification. Irrigation supports livestock development, horticulture, rural enterprises, and non-farm economic activities, creating a broader ecosystem of resilience.
These findings suggest that irrigation should no longer be viewed merely as an agricultural intervention. It is increasingly becoming a climate adaptation strategy.
Unfortunately, public discourse on irrigation often focuses on creation of infrastructure rather than performance of infrastructure. Large investments continue to be made in new projects, while issues relating to maintenance, modernisation, equitable distribution, and operational efficiency receive comparatively less attention.
The current rainfall deficit highlights why this approach requires reconsideration.
A weak monsoon affects all farmers, but its consequences differ significantly depending on the reliability of local water systems. Where canals function efficiently, groundwater is sustainably managed, and local water bodies remain active, communities are better able to absorb climatic shocks. Where these systems are weak, rainfall deficits quickly translate into production losses, rural distress, and pressure on public finances.
The policy response must therefore extend beyond short-term contingency planning.
First, modernisation of existing irrigation systems deserves greater priority. Improving conveyance efficiency, reducing losses, digitising water releases, and strengthening monitoring systems can often generate larger returns than expanding irrigation potential alone.
Second, special attention must be paid to tail-end water distribution. Investments in irrigation infrastructure deliver their intended benefits only when water reaches the last farmer in the command area. Addressing inequities in water allocation is therefore as important as expanding coverage.
Third, groundwater and surface water management must be integrated. Groundwater remains the principal buffer against rainfall shocks in many parts of India, but excessive extraction has weakened this safety net. Greater emphasis on recharge, watershed development, and conjunctive water use is essential.
Finally, restoration of tanks, ponds, wetlands, and traditional water harvesting systems should become a central pillar of climate adaptation planning. These decentralised assets can significantly enhance resilience in districts where irrigation coverage remains limited.
The 43 per cent rainfall deficit should not be viewed simply as a weather event. It is a stress test of India’s water management systems. The fact that over 300 districts require contingency planning reflects the scale of the challenge. Equally, it highlights where future investments should be directed.
India’s agricultural future will depend less on the amount of rainfall it receives and more on how effectively it manages available water. In an era of increasing climate uncertainty and the possibility of more frequent extreme weather events, water security—not rainfall alone—will determine the resilience of rural India.
The lesson from this year’s rainfall deficit is therefore clear: the real challenge facing Indian agriculture is not monsoon dependence, but the persistence of water stress. Addressing it requires moving beyond emergency responses and investing in resilient, equitable, and climate-ready water systems.
The writers are with NCAER, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal
Views expressed are the authors’ own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth