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Most climate models have not been able to adequately capture the picture of ecological imbalance visible across India. Long-term changes in vegetation cover indicate that in regions where green cover has increased, the expansion may also be influenced by invasive alien species. This is particularly evident in the Western Ghats, where such shifts could alter not only local hydrological cycles but also the biogeochemical structure of soils.
Jagdish Krishnaswamy, Dean and Professor at the School of Environment and Sustainability, Indian Institute for Human Settlements, made these remarks on February 25, 2026, during a session of the Anil Agarwal Dialogue titled “India in the Anthropocene and Ecological Futures.”
Krishnaswamy presented the Greening and Browning Atlas of India and explained that the satellite-based atlas maps regions where vegetation cover (greening) has increased and areas where vegetation decline (browning) has occurred.
‘Greening’ refers to an increase in vegetation density or greenery in a given area. In some cases, this may result from afforestation, agricultural expansion, or the spread of shrubs. ‘Browning’, on the other hand, signifies vegetation loss, drying, or a decline in green cover. The drivers may include land-use change, urbanisation, mining, climate change, or the impact of invasive alien species.
The eco-hydrologist and landscape ecologist referred to comparative atlas maps from 1982-2022 and 2000-2022 and highlighted increasing rainfall in parts of Rajasthan in northwestern India and the changing character of the Thar Desert. He noted that the Indira Gandhi Canal has led to increased moisture in the region, with higher rainfall being recorded. At the same time, several other parts of the country are experiencing browning, marked by intensifying drought conditions. He emphasised that the atlas does not merely present percentages of green cover; rather, it signals the kinds of ecological transformations underway and how they are linked to water, land, and biodiversity systems.
Professor Krishnaswamy has served as a Coordinating Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Climate Change and Land. He also played a scientific role in the inclusion of the Western Ghats in the UNESCO World Heritage List.
During the session, he stressed that ecological changes in India are not isolated events but outcomes of interconnected systems. In the Western Ghats, forests do not merely influence local rainfall. Through evapotranspiration, they release moisture into the atmosphere, which then travels eastward with prevailing winds, reaching water-scarce eastern coastal regions. This means that if the forests of the Western Ghats are degraded or structurally altered, the water balance of regions hundreds of kilometres away could also be affected.
In the context of the global water crisis, he presented India’s Wetting and Drying Atlas along with surface water trend data. The “Surface Water Trends” dataset illustrates temporal changes in the spatial extent of lakes, ponds, and other water bodies across the country. The atlas shows that while some regions are consistently drying, others are witnessing unusual increases in wetness. This indicates that the water crisis is not merely about scarcity but about imbalance. Episodes of excessive rainfall and flooding are occurring alongside prolonged drought conditions.
The academic noted that politicians and many citizens often regard rivers reaching the sea as a waste of water. However, rivers that carry sediment to the ocean are vital for estuarine and coastal ecosystems. These sediments help stabilise delta regions and reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities.
He also cautioned against riverfront development as a universal solution for urban rivers, arguing that such approaches may not be ecologically sound. On human-wildlife interactions, he observed that coexistence between humans and species such as jackals and even tigers is increasingly possible under certain conditions.
Explaining water management concepts, he distinguished between ‘blue water’ and ‘green water’. Blue water refers to freshwater in rivers, lakes, and aquifers that is commonly used for drinking and irrigation, much of which is consumed by agriculture. Green water, by contrast, refers to rainwater stored in soil and used by vegetation — a resource that requires far more careful management in the context of climate variability.
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