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Delhi’s air quality continues to worsen due to a deepening mobility crisis despite technological interventions to combat vehicular pollution, think tank Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has warned in a new paper.
Vehicles remain the primary polluter despite the national capital’s adoption of the largest-ever CNG programme for public and local commercial transport, the phase-out of 10-year-old diesel and 15-year-old petrol vehicles, restrictions on entry of non-destined trucks, the implementation of Bharat Stage VI emissions standards and the start of fleet electrification.
In the analysis released November 6, 2024, the think tank took a close look at the current trends in particulate matter (PM) pollution, alongside trends for motorisation, congestion and an overburdened public transport system in the city. The research also pulled data from sources like real-time pollution monitors of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), farm fire counts and traffic congestion trends and more.
While Delhi’s long-term PM2.5 levels initially saw a decline, recent data reveals a troubling upward trend. CSE found that while peak PM2.5 levels in winter fell by 35 per cent since 2019, the average concentration has stagnated and was the highest in the last five years, indicating local pollution sources beyond seasonal farm fires.
In October 2024 alone, farm fire contributions to PM2.5 were minimal, with local sources being the primary contributors for persistent pollution peaks, the data indicated. The air quality has remained poor with no days recorded in the “good” category.
Source studies by Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, The Energy Research Institute and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-SAFAR also show vehicles are the primary polluters, contributing around 40 per cent of PM2.5 emissions and a staggering 81 per cent of nitrogen oxides (NOx). During congested periods, emissions from idling vehicles are several times higher, driving spikes in pollutants like NO2, which correlated strongly with low traffic speeds on Delhi’s roads.
Delhi has seen rapid motorisation, with a 15.6 per cent annual growth rate in vehicles, predominantly two-wheelers and cars. The city now registers over 1,100 two-wheelers and 500 private cars daily. This increase in private vehicles reflects both rising urban sprawl and longer travel distances, which place greater strain on the city’s infrastructure.
Traffic congestion not only worsens air quality but also leads to economic losses. CSE’s rapid assessment estimates that congestion costs an unskilled worker between Rs 7,500 and Rs 20,100 annually, with skilled workers losing up to Rs 26,600. Moreover, festive periods exacerbate the situation, with traffic speeds plummeting by over 50 per cent during peak times, leading to pollutant spikes across the city.
The city’s bus fleet falls way short of demand, with only 45 buses per 100,000 residents, far below the benchmark of 60. This shortage, combined with increased travel distances and high interchange times, has made public transport less attractive, pushing commuters towards private vehicles.
While private vehicles generally have lower per-kilometre fuel costs than public transit fares, the overall cost in terms of lost productivity and fuel due to traffic delays is far greater.
CSE advocated for an expansion of Delhi’s public transport system, particularly the city’s bus fleet, to achieve a modal split target of 80:20 in favour of public and shared transport by 2041. This goal demands annual increases in public transit usage and a corresponding reduction in private vehicle reliance. Additionally, infrastructure improvements and incentives for public transport use are crucial to reverse the reliance on personal vehicles.
With Delhi facing another winter of hazardous air quality, the analysis signalled the need for immediate action to address the root causes of its mobility and pollution crises, underscoring that technology alone cannot clear the city’s skies.