Climate-related disasters have significantly disrupted education systems across Eastern and Southern Africa, affecting millions of children and creating long-term economic and social consequences.
According to a report by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and global consulting firm Dalberg, 130 million children at preprimary, primary, and secondary levels experienced interruptions to their education between 2005 and 2024. These disruptions are projected to result in losses of future earnings ranging from US$120 billion to $140 billion. The scale of the problem is expected to grow even further if urgent action is not taken.
These impacts are expected to persist and compound over time. Without strengthened action to avert, minimise and address loss and damage, cumulative learning disruptions between 2025 and 2050 could affect an estimated 440 to 520 million children, leading to an additional US$260 to $380 billion of future earning losses.
The report, “Protecting Children’s Learning Futures: Quantifying Climate-Related Loss and Damage in Eastern and Southern Africa” sets out how climate events such as floods, droughts and cyclones are damaging school infrastructure, interrupting learning, and forcing many children out of education altogether.
Direct economic loss and damage to education between 2005 and 2024 is estimated at approximately US$1.3 billion, with floods, droughts and storms driving the majority of impacts.
A large portion of this damage is linked to the destruction of infrastructure, including classrooms, furniture, and learning materials.
Beyond financial losses, climate change is also causing severe non-economic damage. Rising temperatures and heatwaves negatively affect students’ concentration, cognitive performance, and exam outcomes. Teachers are also impacted, experiencing reduced productivity, increased absenteeism, and mental health challenges. Disasters often lead to displacement, disrupting school attendance and access, with girls, children with disabilities, and marginalised groups being the most affected. Climate-induced poverty further increases risks such as child labour, child marriage, gender-based violence, and recruitment into armed groups.
Country-level analyses highlight the severity of the issue. The report includes in-depth analysis from Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia and Zambia.
In Zambia, direct economic losses to education reached about US$60 million between 2005 and 2024 and could rise to US$230-$295 million by 2050 if no action is taken. Since 2005, around 5 million children in Zambia have experienced climate-related learning disruptions, contributing to an estimated US$4 to $5 billion in lost future earnings, which is projected to reach 13 to 21 billion by 2050.
In Mozambique, the 2019 cyclones Idai and Kenneth affected 1.1 million children, caused US$3 billion in losses, and impacted 10,500 teachers and nearly 5,000 classrooms, with US$24 million in damage to the education sector.
Despite these impacts, education receives less than 1.5 per cent of global climate finance, leaving education systems exposed to repeated cycles of loss and recovery.
The analysis shows that strengthening schools to withstand climate shocks not only protects education but delivers strong economic returns, with every $1 invested generating up to $13 in benefits by reducing damage and interruptions, safeguarding learning continuity, and preserving children’s long-term development and productivity.
These findings highlight the urgent need for increased funding and stronger strategies to protect education systems and secure children’s futures in the face of climate change.