A new study suggests that ongoing climate change is likely to affect cocoa production in West and Central Africa. The area is responsible for over 70 per cent of the world's cocoa production.
The study was conducted in the four main cocoa producing countries — Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria (west Africa) and Cameroon (central Africa). Ivory Coast and Ghana are the largest producers followed by Nigeria and Cameroon.
The research replicated both the mean and variability in yield over a 30-year period in the past (1980–2010) and in the future (2030–2060). The report was published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
The scientists employed a mechanistic cocoa crop model known as CASEJ, which replicates the key physical and biochemical processes occurring in the plant and their reactions to varying climate conditions. The CASEJ model predicts cocoa growth and production under both water-limited and non-limited scenarios and is designed to simulate the impacts of warming and increased CO2 levels on cocoa yield.
The researchers simulated potential water-limited cocoa yields to evaluate effects of warming and precipitation changes based on five plausible general circulation models climate-change scenarios, with and without elevated CO2.
The findings indicated that temperature and rainfall changes are rendering some regions less ideal for cocoa farming, whereas other areas might gain advantages from the changing climate.
The effects are expected to differ by region, with changes in the climate suitability of production areas and a possible reduction of 50 per cent in the currently suitable climatic area by 2050.
The northern edge of the cocoa-production zone in Ivory Coast and Ghana are projected to suffer the worst reduction (12 per cent) in yield. These areas have already become marginal for producing cocoa. They are estimated to be followed by Nigeria (10 per cent) and Cameroon (2 per cent).
The study's findings indicated that with future climate changes, cocoa production (suitable growing regions) might move more from Ghana and Ivory Coast, which currently account for over 60 per cent of the world's cocoa production, towards eastern countries such as Nigeria and Cameroon.
This change in production could greatly impact countries such as Cameroon, as potential rises in cocoa production in this new region could severely affect forest areas. Cameroon is among the African nations where a significant portion of rainforest and related biodiversity remains intact.
Managing the adaptation of cocoa production to climate change, while avoiding deforestation caused by cocoa expansion will be a major challenge both now and in the future.
The models integrate existing understanding of cocoa physiology with anticipated climate changes in West and Central Africa.
Nevertheless, numerous uncertainties persist. One of them is the impact of increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. As carbon dioxide boosts photosynthesis, it might alleviate some of the adverse effects of drought and heat. The degree of this influence is still unclear.
Scientists continue to investigate the effects of warming on flowering and fruiting, along with the potential evolution of pests and diseases. It is crucial to conduct further research, not only on cocoa but on all crops, to better equip agriculture for the future.