An adversely changing climate was found to be the cause of extreme rains which led to severe floods in five African nations namely — Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad — according to a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) released on October 23, 2024.
Global warming made the extreme rainfall in this rainy season about five to 20 percent more intense across the Niger and Lake Chad basins, said the international team of scientists from Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK belonging to WWA network.
This year’s floods killed an estimated 2,000 people and displaced millions, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN aid agency.
The study showed that month-long spells of intense rainfall in parts of Sudan have increased by about 18 per cent over the past four decades as a likely result of climate change.
Due to human-caused global warming, similar events are no longer rare, and are expected to become even more frequent with further warming.
Extreme rainfall events like those seen in Sudan in August 2024 are expected to occur roughly once every three years, said the study on the link between climate change and extreme weather.
In a world where global temperatures are expected to rise by 2°C, even heavier rainfall is expected. This means that the region should be prepared for the extreme events that are even more powerful than those that occurred this year.
The challenges due to such events are multifaceted as the flooding coincides with numerous compounding factors, including ongoing conflict, large-scale displacement, deteriorating public health, acute food insecurity, and a deepening cost of living crisis.
These events pose significant risks to vulnerable communities, especially in the context of existing issues such as conflict, large-scale displacement, declining public health, acute food insecurity, water management and the escalating cost of living crisis.
For instance, at least 10.4 million people have been displaced as a result of the fighting in Sudan, which began in April 2023 and has caused the worst internal displacement catastrophe in the world.
They have restricted access to basic utilities and many of these internally displaced people (IDPs) are especially susceptible to flooding.
In West and Central Africa, floods have destroyed critical infrastructure, increasing the spread of waterborne diseases, including cholera, which has claimed over 350 lives in Nigeria as per the estimates released by UN OCHA, October 15, 2024
“The persistent conflict and fragility are amplifying risks, exacerbating the existing challenges of poverty, rapid urbanization, and ageing infrastructure,” the study stated.
For instance, the rainfall led to the collapse of Alau Dam in northern Nigeria on 10 September, 2024 and the Arba’at Dam in Sudan on August 25, 2024.
The WWA scientists called for better maintenance of dams and investment in early warning systems. The study noted that the 2024 floods in Sudan have also exposed challenges in water governance and adaptation, particularly regarding shared water resources like the Nile
Considering the transboundary nature of the river systems in Sub-saharan Africa, the study called for strengthening early warning systems by improving transboundary data sharing. Ensuring greater access to warning and risk information, will be essential to reduce loss of life, it said.