A new PNAS Nexus study warns that high-risk human-elephant conflict zones in Southern Africa could grow by 33-100% by 2085, driven mainly by population growth, cropland expansion and climate-related drying.
Analysing records from Namibia and neighbouring countries, researchers link seasonal crop raiding to land-use change and water deficits, urging proactive planning and community-based mitigation to protect both elephants and rural livelihoods.
A study published in the journal PNAS Nexus forecasts that high-risk human-elephant conflict (HEC) areas in Southern Africa could expand by 33 per cent to 100 per cent by 2085, driven primarily by human population growth, expanding croplands and climate-related drying.
The findings highlight the growing challenge of balancing elephant conservation with the livelihoods of rural communities.
Southern Africa is home to more than 290,000 African savanna elephants, accounting for about 70 per cent of the continent’s savanna elephant population. Many elephant populations have stabilised or recovered in recent decades. At the same time, however, farms and human settlements are expanding, increasing encounters between people and elephants, particularly through crop raiding.
To investigate the drivers of conflict, researchers analysed human-elephant conflict records collected between 2004 and 2020 across 38 communal conservancies in Namibia, covering about 147,103 people. They combined statistical and machine-learning approaches to assess conflict patterns and extend their analysis across northern Botswana, Angola and Zambia.
The study identified three major drivers of human-elephant conflict (HEC) - human population growth, land-use expansion and climate-related water deficits.
The study found that crop raiding was strongly seasonal. Average conflict during the wet season was more than 10 times higher than during the dry season. Human population growth, expansion of cropland and increases in built-up areas were among the strongest drivers.
Climate conditions also played an important role. Drier conditions in protected elephant habitats also increased wet-season crop raiding in nearby communities, suggesting that climate-related changes inside protected areas can spill over into surrounding human settlements. However, population growth and land-use changes were generally stronger predictors than climate variability during the study period.
During the wet season, major crop-raiding hotspots were identified around the northern boundary of Etosha National Park and the Zambezi Region of Namibia. Other high-risk areas included western sections of Namibia’s panhandle in Kavango East and areas north of Khaudum National Park. In northern Botswana, extensive areas around the Okavango Delta and near the Moremi Wildlife Reserve were also identified as HEC hotspots.
Predictions of crop raiding during the dry season were broadly similar to those observed in the wet season.
According to the study, tree cover, vegetation productivity, proximity to rivers, roads and fences, and human population were among the most important predictors of conflict.
Although climate variability contributed to conflict, population growth and land-use change were generally stronger predictors during the study period.
Future projections indicate that changes in land use, population and climate could substantially expand crop-raiding risk by 2085.
The findings highlight the need for proactive land-use planning, improved early-warning systems and community-based conflict mitigation.
However, the researchers acknowledge several limitations, including assumptions about stable elephant population distributions, incomplete conflict reporting, unavailable future infrastructure changes and limitations in climate and land-cover models.
The study places Southern Africa’s findings within a broader global context. Human and wildlife populations are projected to increasingly overlap across 56 per cent of the world’s terrestrial land area by 2070, highlighting the growing importance of managing human-wildlife interactions.