Nigeria, the most populous country on the African continent, must adopt community-based flood forecasting as the spectre of flooding looms high in 30 of its 36 states this year, a forecast by the federal government has warned.
The forecast, themed Flood Resilience: Focusing on Communities Preparedness and Adaptation Strategies for Flood Management, was released on April 11, 2025, in the federal capital Abuja by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA). It advocates for improved infrastructure and localised planning.
Flooding is expected to hit 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2025, putting more than 1,200 communities at high risk, according to the forecast.
States at high risk include Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara.
Additionally, 2,187 communities in 293 Local Government Areas (LGAs) across 31 states and the FCT are projected to face moderate flood risk, according to the 2025 forecast.
Meanwhile, poor drainage and weak infrastructure are expected to worsen flash and urban flooding in major cities like Lagos
The warning comes as the country grapples with the escalating impacts of climate change, marked by increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events.
“Flooding remains one of Nigeria’s most devastating natural disasters, and climate change is amplifying both its frequency and intensity,” said Joseph Utsev, Nigeria’s minister of water resources and sanitation, during the presentation of the Annual Flood Outlook (AFO).
Richard Pheelangwah, permanent secretary of the ministry, echoed the concern. He highlighted the heavy toll flooding takes on communities, infrastructure, and the environment. Pheelangwah stressed the urgent need for robust prediction, preparedness, and response systems, especially in light of climate change and past devastating floods in 2012 and 2022
“To strengthen early warning and response systems, this year’s outlook adopts a community-based flood forecasting approach. Instead of broad, generalized predictions, the forecasts are now tailored to specific communities—enabling more targeted communication and enhancing preparedness at the grassroots level,” stated NIHSA in a Facebook post
For example, the flood risks across Nigeria have been categorised into four main types including the High Flood Risk Areas in 657 communities of 52 LGAs between April and June; 544 communities in 142 LGAs between July and September as well as 484 communities in 56 LGAs between October and November.
“This year’s flood forecast goes beyond mapping LGAs and the focus has expanded to assess sectoral impacts, on health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure, offering more robust tools to policymakers and disaster risk managers,” claimed Director General and Chief Executive Officer of NIHSA, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed.
The 2025 AFO integrates three essential components to enhance flood management and resilience. First, it provides detailed, time-bound scenarios through Flood Forecasting, enabling early anticipation of potential flood events.
Second, it emphasises Flood Risk Communication by offering tools that translate complex forecasts into practical, timely action plans. Finally, it includes Flood Mitigation and Adaptation guidelines aimed at reducing vulnerability and strengthening local resilience.
The floods in 2025 are very likely to have severe impact on human lives, property, agriculture, and infrastructure as seen in the past and demand better planning, to address the risks.
In 2024, at least 320 people died and 1.3 million were affected by floods in 31 Nigerian states. According to the United Nations for the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the Nigerian Senate has called on the Federal Government to develop a comprehensive “Marshall Plan” to address the country’s recurring flooding issues, particularly as climate change is expected to increase rainfall and worsen floods.
Consequently, Utsev announced initiatives like a National Flood Insurance Programme (NFIP), highlighting innovation and collaboration towards climate resilience.
The NFIP, a first-of-its-kind scheme, has been designed to provide insurance coverage for households, farmlands, and livestock vulnerable to flood impacts. Pilot projects will roll out in the Kogi and Jigawa states, areas frequently affected by flooding, with the goal of cushioning communities against economic shocks.
Utsev also announced the Niger Flood Project to boost river navigation, flood control, and climate resilience. It is a large-scale effort to manage floodwaters and river systems from Lokoja to Bayelsa, focusing on improved irrigation, hydropower, inland navigation, and eco-tourism.
Integrated Climate Resilience Innovation Project (I-CRIP) was highlighted by the minister as a climate-smart strategy. Led by the NIHSA, it aims to address critical challenges in food security, water resource management, and energy sustainability through climate-smart solutions.
It has been developed in collaboration with five key ministries—water resources and sanitation, agriculture and food security, livestock development, environment, and power.
Utsev also announced plans to launch an Annual Drought Outlook later this year to complement flood forecasts and promote integrated, long-term water resource planning.