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Climate change is casting a shadow on food security in Africa. Global warming of 2°C would put over 50 per cent of the continent’s population at risk of undernourishment, according to the latest edition of New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)’s annual publication.
State of Africa’s Environment 2025, released in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa on September 18, 2025, noted that cropping systems across Africa have been found to be incredibly stressed and are slated for significant declines in production in the coming decades.
“About 70 per cent of Africa is dependent on small and rain-fed agriculture that is expected to be badly hit by a changing climate. IPCC noted that maize yields are likely to reduce by about 22 per cent across sub-Saharan Africa, while Zimbabwe and South Africa are likely to experience yield declines of over 30 per cent by the mid-century. In the same period, wheat production would drop by as much as 35 per cent. Though some produce might show modest increases in the immediate future, this is likely to be offset by declines in the production of most cereals and horticultural crops,” the analysis read.
The report cited the instance of cocoa. A study published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology in February 2025 suggested that ongoing climate change is likely to affect cocoa production in West and Central Africa. The area is responsible for over 70 per cent of the world’s cocoa production.
The study was conducted in the four main cocoa producing countries — Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria (west Africa) and Cameroon (central Africa). Ivory Coast and Ghana are the largest producers followed by Nigeria and Cameroon.
“The research replicated both the mean and variability in yield over a 30-year period in the past (1980–2010) and in the future (2030–2060). The scientists employed a mechanistic cocoa crop model known as casej, which replicates the key physical and biochemical processes occurring in the plant and their reactions to varying climate conditions. The casej model predicts cocoa growth and production under both water limited and non-limited scenarios and is designed to simulate the impacts of warming and increased CO2 levels on cocoa yield. The researchers simulated potential water-limited cocoa yields to evaluate effects of warming and precipitation changes based on five plausible general circulation models climate-change scenarios, with and without elevated CO2,” stated State of Africa’s Environment 2025.
The findings indicated that temperature and rainfall changes are rendering some regions less ideal for cocoa farming, whereas other areas might gain advantages from the changing climate. The effects are expected to differ by region, with changes in the climate suitability of production areas and a possible reduction of 50 per cent in the currently suitable climatic area by 2050.
The northern edge of the cocoa-production zone in Ivory Coast and Ghana is projected to suffer the worst reduction (12 per cent) in yield. These areas have already become marginal for producing cocoa. They are estimated to be followed by Nigeria (10 per cent) and Cameroon (2 per cent).
The study’s findings indicated that with future climate changes, cocoa production (suitable growing regions) might move more from Ghana and Ivory Coast, which currently account for over 60 per cent of the world’s cocoa production, towards eastern countries such as Nigeria and Cameroon.
This change in production could greatly impact countries such as Cameroon, as potential rises in cocoa production in this new region could severely affect forest areas. Cameroon is among the African nations where a significant portion of rainforest and related biodiversity remains intact. Managing the adaptation of cocoa production to climate change, while avoiding deforestation caused by cocoa expansion, will be a major challenge both now and in the future, according to State of Africa’s Environment 2025.
The report also pointed out that not just crops but freshwater and fisheries too will be affected because of climate change on the continent in the years ahead.
Not just food but freshwater too will be in short supply. Combined with an increasing population, which will see Africa’s population nearly quadruple in a little more than 100 years, climate change is likely to put added stress on the availability and access to freshwater, according to the publication.
“Ocean warming and acidification are depleting marine ecosystems, which provides nutrition to millions of inhabitants living on Africa’s large coast. An analysis of fisheries in 132 countries by Edward H Allison et al in 2009 revealed that about two-thirds of the most vulnerable countries are situated in Africa. The worst affected are likely to be coastal countries in West Africa where value of fish is expected to decline by more than 20 per cent, equivalent to an annual loss of US $310 million per year by mid-century, according to IPCC AR5,” State of Africa’s Environment 2025 noted.