Global livestock antibiotic use could rise by 30 per cent by 2040 compared to 2019, under a business-as-usual scenario (without targeted interventions), a new study by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has projected.
However, strategic productivity gains in livestock systems could cut this projected antibiotic use by half, the study published in Nature Communications found.
In the study, ‘The Future of Antibiotic Use in Livestock’, the researchers estimated that global antibiotic use quantity (AMUQ) in livestock reached approximately 110,777 tons in 2019. This AMUQ could rise to 143,481 tons by 2040, representing a 29.5 per cent increase from the 2019 baseline.
But under alternative scenarios, antibiotic use could be reduced by up to 57 per cent (to 62,000 tons) by 2040 if livestock productivity is optimised by improving animal health, management practices and production efficiency.
In fact, even moderate reductions in antibiotic use intensity (AMUI) can offset AMUQ increases, especially when combined with lower livestock biomass. The largest reductions were seen in scenarios where AMUI is reduced by 50 per cent, combined with lower livestock biomass.
However, reducing livestock numbers alone has a limited effect on AMUQ, the study said.
“Enhancing livestock production efficiency is key to curbing antibiotic use,” said Alejandro Acosta, Livestock Economist at FAO and lead author of the study.
“By producing more animal-sourced food with the same or fewer animals, we can reduce the need for antibiotics on farmed animals while strengthening global food security,” she added.
Asia and the Pacific region was expected to remain the largest contributor, accounting for 64.6 per cent of the global total, followed by South America contributing around 19 per cent of the global total. Africa’s AMUQ is forecasted to make up roughly 5.7 per cent, North America 5.5 per cent, and Europe 5.2 per cent of the global total.
Governments worldwide have committed to a significant reduction in the global quantity of antimicrobials used in the agrifood system by 2030, under the 2024 UN General Assembly Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Declaration. “Achieving this goal poses considerable challenges, especially in regions where livestock production is expanding to meet growing food demand,” FAO stated.
FAO recently launched the ‘Reduce the Need for Antimicrobials on Farms for Sustainable Agrifood Systems Transformation’ (RENOFARM) initiative, which provides policy guidance, technical assistance, and capacity-building to help countries curtail antibiotic use while promoting sustainable livestock transformation.
The study was conducted by FAO experts Alejandro Acosta, Wondmagegn Tirkaso, Francesco Nicolli, Giuseppina Cinardi, Junxia Song in collaboration with Thomas Van Boeckel from the University of Zürich.