Unseasonal heat in February and March is accelerating wheat ripening in Punjab and Haryana
Farmers report smaller grains, higher irrigation needs and rising input costs
Weather patterns mirror 2022, when heatwaves cut yields by up to 16%
Rainfall has been sharply below normal, with temperatures several degrees above average
Experts warn shifting climate patterns could threaten India’s key grain-producing region
In Bishanpura Khokhar village in Punjab’s Sangrur district, farmer Malkit Singh stands in his wheat field, watching a crop nearing maturity far sooner than expected.
“This time, I had no idea when winter came and when it left,” he says. “It was cold in January, but by the second week of February, the days were already getting warmer.”
That early warmth, he explains, is critical. February and March are when wheat grains fill. Excess heat during this stage causes premature ripening, leading to smaller grains and reduced yields.
Nearby farmer Gurpiyar Singh shares the concern. “Last year, we got around 25 to 26 quintals per acre. This time, it will be at least 10 per cent lower,” he says.
Farmers across the region say the unusually warm winter has forced them to change long-established practices.
“Normally, wheat needs three rounds of watering. This time, we have done at least four to keep moisture levels up and stop early ripening,” he says.
But that has brought new problems. “Weeds are growing more than usual, even after spraying,” he adds, calling for financial support of at least Rs 400 per quintal to offset losses.
Malkit Singh recalls a similar pattern in 2022, when early heat led to significant damage. “That year, we lost 200 kg to 280 kg per acre. The same fear is there this time,” he says.
The comparison with 2022 is not incidental. That year, a heatwave in February and March led to a 13-16 per cent drop in wheat yields across Punjab and Haryana. Virendra Lather, former principal scientist at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, says the risks this year are similar.
“Timely sown wheat could see losses of 7-8 per cent, while late-sown crops could lose up to 10 per cent,” he says. “If temperatures continue to rise, crops may ripen 10 to 15 days earlier than normal.”
Hariram Sharma, principal agricultural economist at Punjab Agricultural University, also stated similar estimates, underlining that high temperatures could reduce wheat yields by around 10 per cent in Punjab and Haryana.
Meteorologists say this winter has been significantly warmer than usual.
Pavaneet Kaur Kingra, professor of agricultural meteorology at Punjab Agricultural University, points to changing weather patterns. “Due to global warming, wind and pressure systems are shifting, increasing variability,” she says.
She notes that western disturbances, which usually bring winter rain, were largely absent until mid-February, leading to clear skies and higher temperatures. March temperatures were around 5 degrees Celsius (°C) above normal.
The data reflects the scale of the shift.
Punjab saw markedly above-normal temperatures in February, alongside a sharp rainfall deficit. The state recorded just 0.6 mm of rain during the month — 98 per cent below the normal of 27.1 mm. Maximum temperatures ranged from 26.7°C in Amritsar to 29.6°C in Rupnagar and Patiala, about 5.8°C above average. Minimum temperatures were also elevated, ranging between 11.9°C and 15.5°C — up to 4.7°C higher than normal in some areas.
Only a few eastern and southern border districts — Bathinda, Faridkot, Hoshiarpur, Ludhiana, Mansa, Pathankot, Patiala, Rupnagar, Sangrur, and Shaheed Bhagat Singh Nagar — received light rainfall, while most of the state remained effectively dry.
In March, temperatures in parts of Malwa, including Faridkot and Bathinda, climbed to 34°C — about 6°C above normal.
The prolonged dry spell through February and early March has heightened the risk of heat stress for rabi crops such as wheat and barley.
A slight drop in temperature and light rainfall in recent days has offered some relief. Sharma says the change may help crops that are still green.
“Those already at the ripening stage will not recover, but others could benefit,” he says. He also notes that 2022 — another year of major losses — coincided with El Niño conditions.
Agricultural institutions in both states have been more alert this year, drawing lessons from 2022.
Dr Vikram Kaliraman, a wheat expert at Haryana Agricultural University, says current wheat varieties can tolerate temperatures up to 30°C. Beyond 35°C, however, damage becomes significant.
“The second week of March was very hot in many areas,” he says. “We issued advisories for light irrigation and spraying 2 per cent potassium nitrate to reduce heat stress.”
Farmer groups say the situation remains worrying. Tejbir Singh of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (Bhagat Singh) says more than 60 per cent of days in February and early March were warmer than usual.
“If this trend continues, the agricultural economy of northern India is at serious risk,” he warns, urging governments to provide compensation of at least Rs 500 per quintal.
Back in the villages, farmers say the changes have been building for years.
“For the past 10-15 years, winters have been shrinking,” says Raman Dhaka. “February now feels like April. This time, temperatures reached 34°C in early March.”
He pauses before adding, “Winter is shrinking, wheat stalks are shrinking — and so is our income.”