Manipur’s farmers are grappling with an erratic monsoon and a severe rainfall deficit that threatens the state’s rice-dependent agrarian economy.
Delayed rains have pushed paddy transplantation to late July, stunting crops, slashing yields by up to half, and forcing a shift from traditional varieties to short-duration hybrids, while rising input costs and conflict deepen rural distress.
Farmers in Manipur in India’s Northeast are beginning to feel the strain from a changing climate. As warming causes the rainfall pattern to change across the state, farmers are bearing the brunt, as Down To Earth (DTE) found out on the ground.
The situation is especially grim this monsoon in Manipur.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), after recording a rainfall deficit of 71 per cent for much of June, the Northeastern state finally received much-awaited showers towards beginning of the July, bringing relief and renewed hope to farmers. Despite the late rainfall, the state’s cumulative rainfall for July remained 41 per cent below normal, far short of what is required for cultivating paddy, Manipur’s main kharif crop.
Among the worst-affected districts is Imphal West, which recorded a cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit of more than 52 per cent from June through the end of July. The prolonged shortfall has severely affected the state’s agrarian sector, with villages such as Maklang in Imphal West district among those bearing the brunt of the deficient monsoon.
Although some paddy fields appear lush and green from a distance, a closer look reveals clear signs of moisture stress. In many fields, the paddy plants are stunted, weaker, and shorter than they should be at this stage of growth due to prolonged water scarcity.
Irengbam Ranjana, 47, a woman farmer from Maklang Awang Leikai, said farmers are now transplanting paddy seedlings only by the end of July, instead of the traditional first week of the month, due to inadequate water availability and delayed rainfall. She noted that the area has experienced increasingly erratic rainfall over the past several years, with weather patterns becoming even more unpredictable in recent times, disrupting the agricultural calendar and affecting farming activities.
“Despite the lack of rain, we have no option but to transplant the seedlings and hope for the best,” she said. “Delaying the planting any further will affect the yield. The high temperatures, coupled with the shortage of rainfall, are making the situation worse. If the rainfall deficit continues, everything could dry up. We are worried that we might lose the entire crop.”
She said pumping water into the fields is not enough because paddy requires a large and continuous supply of water. “Since we are transplanting only at the end of July and winter sets in by October, we can no longer cultivate our traditional or native paddy varieties,” she said. “Instead, we have to depend on short-duration hybrid varieties such as Imoinu Fou, which can be harvested within the shorter growing season.”
Arambam Subhashini, 37, a tenant farmer from the same area, said “The shortage of rainfall has delayed transplantation, and as a result, our yields have declined by more than 50 per cent. Every year, farming is becoming more uncertain because we can no longer predict when the rains will arrive.”
“In 2024, there was so little rain that, out of desperation, we sowed every grain of paddy by hand in completely dry fields without any standing water,” she said. “Fortunately, rain arrived a couple of weeks later, but it was far too late. That year, our harvest fell by around 45 to 55 per cent.”
“As a tenant farmer, the situation is even more difficult,” she said. “We have to pay the annual lease to the landowner regardless of whether the harvest is good or bad, so we have no choice but to continue cultivating every year. The harvest is not only meant to cover the lease; it is also our family’s source of food for the entire year. But with input costs rising and yields declining, farming is becoming an immense hardship.”
“The delayed transplantation, coupled with the rainfall deficit, has reduced soil fertility, increased pest infestations, and affected proper grain formation,” she said. “As a result, we are forced to spend more on pesticides and fertilisers, which is placing an enormous burden on our already fragile finances. The situation is especially difficult this year, as every sector in the state has been severely affected by the conflict that has continued since May 3, 2023,” she said.
Central Agricultural University (CAU), Imphal, College of Agriculture Genetic and Plant Breeding department head professor Thokchom Renuka said, “Rice, the state’s primary kharif crop, has been severely affected by the delayed and deficient monsoon. Since most agricultural practices here are rain-fed and rice is a highly water-intensive crop, the rainfall deficit is expected to significantly reduce this season’s harvest.”
The ideal time to begin preparing paddy seeds for sowing is around June 15. Seedlings should be ready for transplanting by the first week of July. For farmers who practice direct seeding and do not transplant seedlings, sowing should also be completed during the first week of July.
June is the optimum month to establish the crop because most commonly grown rice varieties require 130–135 days to reach maturity and begin flowering at around 95 days after sowing. Paddy performs best when flowering occurs during the first week of October, when temperatures generally remain within the favourable range of 25-35°C.Temperatures below 20°C during the flowering stage can severely affect the physiology of the rice plant, impair pollination and grain filling, and ultimately lead to a significant reduction in yield.
The Central Agricultural University, Imphal, has developed and released five climate-resilient paddy varieties to support farmers in adapting to changing climatic conditions. These include CAU R1 Tampha Fou, a high-yielding variety suited for rain-fed valley farming systems; CAU R2 Tomthin Fou, an early-maturing upland/hill rice variety that reaches harvest in approximately 100 days; CAU R3 Mangal Fou, another 100-day variety designed as a contingency crop to replace crops lost to floods, droughts, or other climate-induced disasters; CAU R4 Inot Fou, a 140-day variety specifically developed for deep-water conditions; and CAU R5 Imoinu Fou, a medium-duration variety (125-139 days) with strong stems and improved resilience to pest infestations.
Nevertheless, traditional crop varieties should not be overlooked simply because higher-yielding alternatives are available. These indigenous varieties have evolved over generations and are well adapted to the state’s unique climatic and environmental conditions. They possess valuable traits such as tolerance to local stresses, adaptability, and resilience, making them an important genetic resource for crop improvement.
Directorate of Environment and Climate Change, Government of Manipur, Director Dr T Brajakumar said that the state has witnessed one of the highest monsoon rainfall deficits in the last decade. Surprisingly, the state has also recorded higher annual rainfall than ever before, receiving up to 2,164 mm against the average of 1,500 mm. The major concern is that the rainfall is no longer evenly distributed, and the pattern has become highly unpredictable. In many instances, the amount of rainfall that would normally occur over a week now falls within a few hours, causing widespread disruption across the state.
He explained that daily rainfall of 0.1-2.4 mm is classified as ‘very light’, 2.5-7.5 mm as ‘light’, 7.6-64.4 mm as ‘moderate’, 64.5-124.4 mm as ‘heavy’, 125-244.4 mm as ‘very heavy’, and anything above 244.5 mm as ‘extremely heavy rainfall’.
Generally, a daily rainfall of 2-50 mm is considered ideal for Manipur, as slow and continuous rainfall helps retain soil moisture, recharge groundwater, and maintain the water table. However, due to climate change, the state’s rainfall pattern has shifted, with rainfall frequently exceeding 64 mm in a day. Rainfall that would normally be distributed over around 300 days is now concentrated within 60-120 days. This has led to waterlogging and flash floods, increased evapotranspiration, and intensified extreme weather events, causing widespread damage, particularly to the agrarian sector, while perpetuating the cycle. Rainfall deficit can severely affect soil health by reducing soil moisture, leading to the decline of beneficial soil microorganisms and a consequent loss of soil fertility.
He explained that the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers has increased the risk of frequent floods and droughts across the Brahmaputra basin, where Manipur is located. He added that by 2030, Manipur is projected to receive a 15-40 per cent increase in annual rainfall.
Emphasising the need for evidence-based policymaking, he said that a policy may work effectively in one region but fail in another. He stressed that the knowledge gained over the past 30 years should be used to formulate policies for the next five years, as the rapidly changing climate has made it increasingly difficult to frame effective policies for the next decade or longer.