Ahilyanagar, Beed, Dharashiv, Sangli and Solapur have emerged as Maharashtra’s most vulnerable flash drought hotspots, according to a 44-year study.
The semi-arid districts recorded rapidly intensifying flash droughts, with intensification rates exceeding 9% per eight-day period.
Researchers found that while flash drought duration has remained broadly stable, the speed at which droughts develop is rising more consistently in districts such as Sindhudurg and Solapur.
Scientists say dedicated flash drought monitoring systems, early warning frameworks and climate adaptation policies are needed to help farmers and water managers respond before severe damage occurs.
Ahilyanagar, Beed, Dharashiv, Sangli and Solapur have emerged as Maharashtra’s most vulnerable flash drought hotspots, according to a new study that analysed drought patterns in the state over 44 years.
The study, published in the journal Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, found that these semi-arid interior districts showed severe and rapidly intensifying flash droughts, with intensification rates exceeding 9 per cent per eight-day period. The study found that while the duration of flash droughts has remained relatively stable, the speed at which they develop has shown a more consistent and significant increase in districts such as Sindhudurg and Solapur.
Flash droughts develop much faster than conventional droughts, often within days or weeks. They are driven by a combination of rainfall deficits, high temperatures, rapid soil moisture loss and high atmospheric demand for water.
The researchers said Maharashtra’s flash drought behaviour is changing gradually, with risks concentrated in specific hotspots rather than showing a uniform state-wide trend.
The study analysed flash droughts across Maharashtra between 1981 and 2024. It found that most parts of the state showed low to moderate flash drought severity, with relatively gradual moisture depletion under normal hydro-climatic conditions.
But semi-arid interior districts, particularly Ahilyanagar, Beed, Dharashiv, Sangli and Solapur, showed higher severity and faster intensification. The researchers said rapid soil moisture depletion, rainfall deficits, higher temperatures and increased vapour pressure deficit were together accelerating flash drought development in these regions.
Vapour pressure deficit measures how strongly the atmosphere draws moisture from the land and vegetation. Higher values can speed up drying. The study said the co-occurrence of high severity and rapid intensification leaves limited time for soil moisture recovery, resulting in more severe moisture stress.
The researchers said this could be linked to high temperatures, sparse vegetation cover and strong interaction between soil moisture and temperature, which can accelerate surface drying.
By contrast, eastern districts such as Bhandara, Gadchiroli, Gondia and Wardha, as well as coastal districts including Ratnagiri, Palghar, Thane and Sindhudurg, generally showed lower severity and slower intensification rates.
The study said better rainfall distribution, humid climatic conditions and greater moisture retention helped reduce rapid surface drying in these areas.
However, the pattern varies by season.
During the non-monsoon season, average flash drought duration increases substantially, with mean events typically lasting 20 to 25 days across many districts, including Thane, Nashik, Palghar and Pune.
The study found insignificant increasing trends in mean flash drought duration in parts of central Maharashtra, including Ahilyanagar, Jalna and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, as well as eastern districts such as Akola, Amravati, Yavatmal and Wardha.
Vikas Poonia, lead author of the study from Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, said flash droughts are becoming more localised but more intense.
“Districts like Gadchiroli and Chandrapur experienced flash droughts more often because changing weather conditions triggered more events,” he said.
“However, districts like Ahilyanagar, Beed, Dharashiv, Sangli and Solapur already have hotter and drier climates. When flash drought starts there, soil moisture disappears much faster, making the drought more intense and more damaging, even if it occurs less frequently.”
Poonia said flash droughts were rare during the monsoon season, with most locations recording fewer than two such events over the study period. They were far more common during the non-monsoon season, with many areas experiencing 15 to 25 events and some locations recording more than 25 events over 44 years.
Eastern Maharashtra also recorded a high frequency of flash drought events during the transition from the non-monsoon to the monsoon season. Poonia warned that climate change is likely to make flash droughts more frequent in the coming decades.
“Rising temperatures are increasing the atmosphere’s demand for moisture,” he said. “This means even short periods of below-normal rainfall can quickly develop into severe flash droughts.”
He said drought monitoring systems should integrate soil moisture, atmospheric feedbacks and evaporative demand to improve early warning and preparedness. He added that most of India’s drought policies were designed for slow-onset droughts, while flash droughts are a rapidly emerging climate threat.
“Since they intensify within days or weeks instead of months, existing policies and response mechanisms are often too slow,” he said. “We now need dedicated flash drought monitoring systems, early warning frameworks and climate adaptation policies so that governments, farmers and water managers can act before severe damage occurs.”
Co-author Deepika Yadav, a research scholar, said the findings could help strengthen drought forecasting, improve irrigation planning and support water resource management across Maharashtra.
“Incorporating land-atmosphere interactions into operational drought early warning systems will give farmers and policymakers time to respond before rapidly developing droughts cause widespread damage,” she said.