A Down To Earth analysis found that 65 of India’s 111 high-priority farm districts are already rainfall-deficient in an El Niño year.
These districts have irrigation coverage below 25 per cent, leaving farmers heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon for kharif sowing.
Twelve districts have recorded ‘large deficient’ rainfall, with deficits of 60 per cent or more since the monsoon began on June 1.
Kharif sowing across India was 16 per cent lower than last year as of July 10, while drought conditions are spreading across several northeastern and eastern states.
Of the 111 districts identified by the government as most vulnerable to farm distress during this El Niño year, 69 are already recording deficient rainfall, a Down To Earth analysis shows. Many farmers in these districts depend almost entirely on the monsoon and have little irrigation. As a result, the kharif sowing season is already becoming more difficult for them.
Anticipating a weak or uncertain monsoon, with the possibility of a ‘super’ El Niño, the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare said on June 23 that around 315 districts had been identified as potentially affected. Of these, 111 were classified as high-priority districts because irrigation coverage is below 25 per cent, placing them at greater risk of crop failure and farmer distress.
Down To Earth accessed the list of 315 districts and analysed India Meteorological Department rainfall data for the 111 high-priority districts since June 1, when the southwest monsoon season began.
The monsoon, which runs from June to September, is critical for India’s kharif crops. With the season nearing its halfway point, the analysis found that nearly six in 10 high-priority districts are recording deficient rainfall. Of these, 12 have entered the ‘large deficient’ category, meaning rainfall is 60 per cent or more below normal.
The table below lists all 111 vulnerable districts, their recorded rainfall for the period June 1 to July 15 against the normal and their current rainfall status.
Source: Analysed from the agriculture ministry’s vulnerable districts list, accessed by Down To Earth, and IMD rainfall data. Two districts, Longding and Tengnoupal, had no rainfall data reported.
Rainfall categories: Large Deficient (LD), Deficient (D), Normal (N), Excess (E), and Large Excess (LE)
The agriculture ministry and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research identified the districts on the basis of two overlapping vulnerabilities: a weak monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department and irrigation coverage below 25 per cent. This means farmers in these areas have limited options if rainfall fails.
The impact is already visible in sowing data.
As of July 10, kharif sowing across India stood at 53.13 million hectares, compared with 63.27 million hectares by the same date last year. That is a shortfall of 10.14 million hectares, or 16 per cent less than the corresponding period in 2025.
The rainfall deficit is starkest in Longleng district of Nagaland. The district has received just 0.2 millimetres of rain since June 1, against a seasonal normal of 439.7 millimetres — a shortfall of 99 per cent, the worst among all high-priority districts.
Other severely affected districts include Zunheboto and Tuensang in Nagaland, Ramanagara in Karnataka and Nandurbar in Maharashtra, all of which face heightened risk of drought-related distress.
Of the 12 districts that have recorded ‘large deficient’ rainfall, Nagaland accounts for three, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam account for two each, while Manipur, Meghalaya, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh have one district each.
In six states and Union territories — Meghalaya, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Manipur, Mizoram and Puducherry — every high-priority district on the list has received below-normal rainfall, including both ‘deficient’ and ‘large deficient’ categories.
Seven of Assam’s eight high-priority districts, or 88 per cent, are also deficient. In Nagaland, five out of six districts are in deficit while Odisha's four out of six are running short on monsoon rain.
Maharashtra has the highest number of rainfall-deficient high-priority districts, with 10 of its 22 districts running short on rain. It is followed by Chhattisgarh with nine district.
The drought picture mirrors the rainfall data. According to the India Drought Monitor’s latest assessment, Manipur has 98.1 per cent of its area under drought, the highest share of any state. It is followed by Jharkhand at 78.2 per cent, Meghalaya at 77.6 per cent, Assam at 74.5 per cent and Arunachal Pradesh at 70 per cent.
These are among the same states that showed the highest shares of rainfall-deficient high-priority districts in the Down To Earth analysis.
Nationally, 30.7 per cent of India’s area was under drought, the monitor showed. But the rainfall pattern is uneven. While most high-priority districts are facing deficit, a few are recording the opposite problem.
Mumbai City, Mumbai Suburban, Palghar, Bageshwar and Tehri Garhwal are all seeing large rainfall surpluses. In some cases, rainfall is more than 70 per cent above normal, raising the risk of flooding and waterlogging even as many other vulnerable districts face drought stress.