Farm size is being consolidated across the world according to a new study. It is something that could have impacts on rural development and food security.
The study was published in the journal Nature Communications on October 17, 2025. A research team led by Jiani Wang and Qing Zhu from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, reconstructed and analysed a global dataset on farm size spanning from 1970 to 2020. They found key historical shifts and future trajectories.
They found that global average ‘socio-economic farm size’ may triple by 2100, amid rural population decline, according to a new study. ‘Socio-economic farm size (SFS)’ has been defined by the researchers as agricultural land area divided by the number of farms.
The reason the researchers included the term ‘socio-economic’ in the name of the indicator was to distinguish it from ‘geophysical farm size’ (GFS), as different approaches are used to calculate the latter.
GFS focuses on the physical attributes of land, such as area, topography and land use patterns, often relying on satellite-based remote sensing technologies to delineate farm boundaries
Unlike purely geophysical measures, socio-economic farm size incorporates demographic, labour, and economic factors, providing a more holistic understanding of farm size dynamics.
The long-term dataset revealed a 15 per cent decline in global average socio-economic farm size from 1970 to 2000 and a 14 per cent increase from 2000 to 2020. It may triple by 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (the middle pathway) scenario.
The increase after 2000 can be due to decreasing rural population and appropriate land consolidation of fragmented farms, even as global GDP per capita grew rapidly and urbanisation accelerated rapidly, the study said.
“The main driver of recent and future expansion is rural population decline, which reduces the number of people operating farms, leading to land consolidation,” stated Lei Liu, the corresponding author of the study.
Regional trends, however, diverge significantly. While Europe, Northern America, and Oceania saw exponential growth in recent decades, regions like India and Sub-Saharan Africa experienced reductions.
Future trends indicate widespread consolidation toward larger farms including in Asia and Africa, driven by declining rural populations.
Regional divergence in farm size trends reflects structural and institutional conditions. In high-income regions like Europe, consolidation is linked to early urbanisation and mechanisation. In contrast, continued fragmentation in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa stems from population pressure, insecure tenure, and weak land markets.
“Regional divergence in farm size trends reflects structural and institutional conditions,” said Liu. The impact of policies was also highlighted.
In the US, SFS expansion around 1990-2000 was the fastest (1.9% yr−1), probably because of the rapid urbanisation combined with the Agricultural Adjustment Act, resulting in many small farms being consolidated into larger ones.
In addition, subsidies, which include direct payments, crop insurance, and price supports, encourage the adoption of advanced technologies and economies of scale, thereby accelerating farm consolidation. Thus, the average farm size in the US has steadily increased over time, while the number of small and mid-sized farms has declined.
Farm sizes in African countries such as Kenya, Nigeria and Mali declined at a rate of 1.1–2.7% yr−1. India’s SFS declined by 1.8% yr−1. Laws such as the Land Ceiling Act, which limits the amount of land that can be owned by an individual or a family, have preserved the smallholder economy.
China’s Household Responsibility System (HRS) reforms represent pivotal yet unmodeled policy shocks that directly altered farm size trajectories.
Farm consolidation is not without its drawbacks. The consolidation of land could lead to a decline in rural employment opportunities, and a loss of local knowledge and biodiversity associated with traditional farming practices. In many cases, small farms are the backbone of rural economies, providing jobs, ensuring food sovereignty, and supporting the resilience of food systems during crises.
The findings underscored the need for targeted policies to address the challenges and opportunities associated with farm consolidation, ensuring sustainable food production in a rapidly changing world.
Policies that promote consolidation should be designed with safeguards to protect smallholder livelihoods and ensure that the benefits do not come at the cost of rural development or food security, the researchers cautioned.