The southwest monsoon season made a recovery in July after one of the driest June months because of the activity of low pressure areas and depressions, mainly over central India. But the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts below normal rainfall for many regions of the country in August and September. Many regions of the country also suffered from above normal maximum and minimum temperatures which could continue in August as well, according to IMD forecasts.
The all India rainfall for the month of July was 1 per cent above normal and the cumulative seasonal rainfall for June and July is at 13 per cent below normal. Almost 50 per cent of districts in the country are still suffering from deficient (20 per cent to 59 per cent below normal) or large deficient (60 per cent to 99 per cent below normal) rainfall.
The country also experienced 269 extreme heavy rainfall events and 918 very heavy rainfall events in July. “The number of extremely heavy rainfall events is much higher than in previous years but one of the factors could also be because of the increase in the number of rain gauges being monitored by the IMD in 2026,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of IMD in a virtual press briefing on July 31.
The biggest shift in rainfall was over central India with a swing from 50 per cent deficit in June to 33 per cent excess in July. Overall central India is the only homogenous region with an excess seasonal rainfall of 4 per cent.
India’s northwestern regions also fared decently well with a change from almost 32 per cent deficit in June to four per cent deficit in July. The fortunes of east and Northeast India and the southern peninsula haven’t changed much between June and July.
Most of the rainfall over central India and some of the rainfall over the northwest was mainly because of the formation and progression of four low pressure systems (LPSs) of which two systems intensified into depressions. While the number low pressure areas in July was normal, the number of LPS days was significantly above normal. The LPSs were active on 24 days in July against a normal of 13.56 days, according to data from the IMD.
Another interesting characteristic of the weather in July were the above normal maximum (daytime) and minimum (nighttime) temperatures. The all India monthly minimum temperature for July was the second highest since 1901 while the maximum temperature was the 10th highest in the same period.
Among homogenous regions, the day time temperature for July was the second highest in the southern peninsula while the night time temperature was the highest in 126 years. The minimum temperature was also third highest for northwest and central India and fourth highest for east and Northeast India.
Monthly average rainfall for India in the month of August is most likely to be below normal that is <94 per cent of long period average (LPA). The LPA for August averaged between 1971-2020 is 254.9 mm.
IMD’s forecast map showed chances of below normal rainfall throughout the country except for some parts of southern Odisha, Telangana, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, where rainfall is expected to be normal to above normal.
The combined rainfall forecast for August and September is direr as the chances of normal to above normal rainfall is restricted to isolated parts of West Bengal, Ladakh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The forecast map for temperatures during August showed that almost all of India could have above normal minimum temperatures except some regions in Ladakh, while Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, could have above normal maximum temperatures.