A study published in Nature Geoscience reveals that 99% of the world's glaciers erode at rates between 0.02 and 2.68 mm per year.
Researchers used machine learning to predict erosion rates for over 180,000 glaciers, highlighting the influence of precipitation, elevation, and geology.
This comprehensive analysis aids in understanding landscape changes and sediment movement globally.
A new study by researchers has predicted worldwide glacier erosion rates with new precision.
The majority of glacial erosion occurs in regions with widespread modern ice cover in Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, Greenland, Scandinavia and the southern Andes.
The highest collective rates of glacial erosion are observed in areas of Alaska, Central and South Asia, Caucasus and the Middle East, and New Zealand, found the study published in Nature Geoscience on August 7, 2025.
This global distribution is predominantly driven by the effects of precipitation, glacial elevation, length, latitude and the underlying geology, in addition to glacial velocity.
The study offered a comprehensive view of how fast glaciers erode, and how they change the landscape. Most importantly, the research also provides an estimate of the rate of future erosion for more than 180,000 glaciers worldwide. The Gangotri Glacier, Dokriani Glacier and Siachen Glacier were a part of the study.
Researchers led by Sophie Norris from Canada’s University of Victoria (UVic) used machine learning tools to develop equations that integrate glacial erosion and glaciological, topoclimatic and geological variables based on a global-scale synthesis of 181 contemporary glacier-derived erosion rates.
Results reveal environment-specific erosion rate equations for surge-type, marine and land terminating glacial settings.
Researchers estimated erosion rates for 185,081 contemporary glaciers constituting 85 per cent of the total of Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6 (RGI). The study estimated that 99 per cent of these glaciers display predicted erosion rates between 0.02 mm yr−1 and 2.68 mm yr−1.
The glaciers collectively erode approximately 23 Gt of bedrock material each year. Fluvial sediment flux from exorheic drainage areas has been estimated to generate 18.5-20 Gt yr−1.
The study demonstrated that glacial velocity is not the most statistically important predictor of glacial erosion in any environment.
Instead, an “improved prediction of glacial erosion is attained when velocity is considered with additional glaciological, topoclimatic and geological variables, with the most dominant influences exhibited by precipitation, glacial elevation, length, latitude and the underlying geology”.
The study supports the idea that mean annual precipitation (MAP) influences erosion rates in all glacial environments and that mean annual air temperature (MAAT) is also influential, although to a lesser extent.
“The conditions that lead to erosion at the base of glaciers are more complicated than we previously understood. Our analysis found that many variables strongly influence erosion rates: temperature, amount of water under the glacier, what kind of rocks are in the area, and how much heat comes from inside the Earth,” Sophie Norris said.
The results highlighted the importance of seismicity, lithology and geothermal heat flux (GHF) in controlling glacial erosion and emphasises the need for a holistic assessment of the controls on glacial erosion that includes glaciological, topoclimatic and geological influences.
Understanding the complex factors that cause erosion underneath glaciers is vital information for landscape management, long-term nuclear waste storage and monitoring the movement of sediment and nutrients around the world.