As the depression that crossed India’s east coast moves north-northwest and weakens, its rainfall footprint is expanding.
IMD warnings cover coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana and Chhattisgarh, while neighbouring states brace for intense showers.
Authorities are watching for flash floods, waterlogging and landslides as forecasts suggest the wet spell could persist for several days.
This is what we call a deep depression that has crossed India’s east coast, bringing heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. This depression carries winds gusting up to 75 kilometres per hour. The system has moved inland, extending the impacts of the rainfall farther north.
Earlier forecasts had raised the possibility of further intensification. But the system did not intensify into a cyclone. One possible factor could be the strong El Niño conditions currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
It crossed the north Andhra Pradesh coast near Kalingapatnam between late September 23 and the early hours of September 24. It is now moving inland and weakening. But the rainfall threat is far from over.
The system is moving north-northwestwards. The IMD has issued orange to red alerts for Chhattisgarh, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Telangana, with some locations potentially receiving more than 204.5 millimetres of rain. Rainfall is also expected in parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
Interestingly, the weather system is also increasing rainfall activity over Nepal. Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall in parts of Gandaki and Lumbini provinces between September 25 and 27, with heavy to very heavy rain also possible in parts of Koshi and Bagmati, among other provinces. Thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds could accompany the heavier rain.
The rain could increase the risk of flooding, inundation, landslides and rising river levels in vulnerable areas.
Forecasts indicate that rainfall activity could continue through the next few days. Some forecasts have identified September 26 as a potentially higher-risk period, although the exact location and intensity of the heaviest rain can still change.
So, while the Bay of Bengal system is losing strength, its rainfall impacts are extending farther inland, across eastern and northern India and into Nepal.