A new Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis finds that if governments implement three actions, they already agreed under the COP28 Global Stocktake—tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and cutting methane emissions by 2030—they could sharply bend the global warming curve and bring projected end-century temperatures down from 2.6°C to about 1.7°C.
The assessment, released on November 19 at the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), shows these measures will collectively cut global emissions by 18 GtCO₂e in 2035 compared to current policy projections. They will reduce the warming rate by a third within a decade, and by half by 2040. Methane reductions—though only 20 per cent of total emissions cuts—deliver up to half of the near-term cooling benefit because of methane’s outsized influence on short-term warming.
CAT notes that the warming improvement—about 0.9°C—is almost equivalent to the entire drop in projected warming achieved in the 10 years since the Paris Agreement. “If governments achieved this by 2035, it would be a gamechanger,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, calling for immediate political commitment and stronger finance flows, especially for poorer countries.
The three goals form the structural core of the COP30 Presidency’s action agenda to transition away from fossil fuels. Their combined effect is driven primarily by renewables and efficiency, each contributing roughly 40 per cent of total G20 emissions reductions, with electrification emerging as the decisive lever for both.
Under CAT’s scenario, temperatures would still overshoot 1.5°C—peaking at around 1.8°C in the 2070s—but stabilise near 1.7°C by 2100 instead of climbing further under current trajectories. The alternative, CAT warns, is a future where warming accelerates through 2030 and continues rising past the end of the century.
The analysis stresses that rapidly reducing the rate of warming is essential for adaptation, as many countries are already unable to keep pace with mounting climate impacts. A slower rise in temperatures would give ecosystems and communities more time to adjust, easing adaptation pressures and reducing loss and damage.
Achieving these goals at scale, CAT emphasises, is technically feasible but hinges on immediate, coordinated action—particularly from the G20, which accounts for 80 per cent of global emissions. Tripling renewables in the G20 alone delivers 4.6 GtCO₂e of reductions by 2030 and 5.8 GtCO₂e by 2035, while doubling efficiency delivers 4 GtCO₂e and 6.4 GtCO₂e in the same years.
But success also depends on substantial increases in climate finance, especially to overcome high capital costs in emerging economies. Without this, CAT warns, many countries will be unable to deploy renewables or efficiency solutions at the required pace.
Stopping deforestation—another GST priority—would deliver additional reductions and further lower warming, underscoring that the three measures are necessary but not sufficient to close the full 1.5°C gap.
“The real question is political,” Hare added. “Can governments resist fossil fuel pressure, and will richer countries accelerate finance for those that need it?”
CAT concludes that implementing the three GST energy and methane goals would represent the biggest collective step forward since the Paris Agreement and could decisively course-correct this decade—if countries start now and sustain action well beyond 2035.