A depression will form over the Bay of Bengal by October 22, 2024, and will become a cyclone on October 23, Director General of Meteorology in the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra told Down To Earth (DTE) on October 20.
“It will become a depression by October 22 and a cyclone by October 23. It will reach the coasts of Odisha and West Bengal by October 24. On that day and the next, there will be heavy rainfall, high speed winds and big tidal waves,” he added.
But Mohapatra said the exact time and area of landfall would be known only in the next two days, when a Low-Pressure Area (LPA) or depression starts to form.
“At the moment it is not clear at what time the landfall will occur because an LPA has not formed so far. Once an LPA or a depression forms, the landfall point, and time can be determined. The most probable area of landfall is Odisha and West Bengal. Odisha is most probable point of landfall, but the exact details can only be known once the LPA forms,” said the IMD DG.
He added that the IMD will reveal more details in its bulletins on October 21.
The IMD, in a statement released on October 20, stated, “A Low-Pressure Area (LPA) is very likely to form over the East-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwest wards and intensify into a depression by 22nd October morning and into a cyclonic storm by 23rd October 2024 over East-central Bay of Bengal.”
The statement added: “Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 20th & 21st and over Gangetic West Bengal on 24th & 25th; isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha on 24th & 25th October 2024.”
According to Mohapatra, wind speeds will reach 100-120 kilometres per hour. “There will be extremely heavy rainfall – 20-30 cm rainfall can be recorded in 24 hours at different stations. We will not be surprised if one or two stations report more than 30 cm of rainfall. This will lead to flooding,” he said.
The IMD DG added that rapid intensification was not being expected. “We expect the intensification to be normal,” he said.