· IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall across most of India in July 2026, raising concerns over agriculture, water resources and reservoir levels.
· Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely across most regions, increasing humidity, heat stress and pressure on electricity demand.
· Uneven monsoon expected, with northwest, northeast and parts of east-central India likely to receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
· Weak El Nino conditions may strengthen during the monsoon, while the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to remain neutral throughout.
· IMD advises timely water conservation, efficient resource management and weather-based agricultural planning to reduce risks from weak monsoon conditions.
India may witness a challenging July this year as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected below-normal rainfall across much of the country, raising fresh concerns for agriculture, water resources, and overall economic activity. According to the department’s latest monthly forecast, the average rainfall during July 2026 is expected to remain below the Long Period Average (LPA), while both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal in most regions. The outlook suggests that the southwest monsoon could weaken during one of its most crucial months, increasing the possibility of heat, humidity, and water stress across several states.
The IMD has estimated that nationwide rainfall during July is likely to remain below 94 per cent of the Long Period Average. Based on rainfall records from 1971 to 2020, the average precipitation for the month stands at 280.4 mm. While this projection indicates an overall shortfall, the department has clarified that not all regions will experience similar conditions. Parts of northwest India, the northeastern states, east-central India, and sections of the eastern peninsular region are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, the majority of the country is likely to record below-normal precipitation, making rainfall distribution highly uneven.
The forecast has intensified concerns among farmers, as July is one of the most critical months for sowing and early crop establishment during the Kharif season. Reduced rainfall could affect soil moisture, delay agricultural operations, and increase dependence on irrigation, particularly in rain-fed farming regions. Lower rainfall may also reduce inflows into reservoirs, affecting irrigation supplies and limiting water availability for both agriculture and domestic use.
Beyond farming, the anticipated rainfall deficit could have wider implications for water resources and energy production. Reservoir storage levels may decline if rainfall remains inadequate, placing pressure on drinking water supplies in vulnerable regions. Hydropower generation could also be affected due to lower water availability, while ecosystems dependent on seasonal rainfall may experience additional stress. Experts believe that efficient water management and conservation measures will become increasingly important if rainfall remains below normal throughout the month.
In addition to reduced rainfall, the IMD has forecast above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most parts of the country. Higher daytime temperatures, combined with increased humidity during the monsoon season, are expected to make weather conditions more uncomfortable for millions of people. Only a few parts of west-central India are likely to witness normal or slightly below-normal maximum temperatures, while isolated areas of central and northeastern India may record near-normal minimum temperatures.
The combination of deficient rainfall and elevated temperatures may also increase evaporation rates, further reducing soil moisture and placing additional stress on crops. Urban areas could experience prolonged spells of humid weather, increasing discomfort and potentially raising electricity demand due to greater use of cooling systems.
The IMD has also highlighted the role of large-scale oceanic conditions that influence the Indian monsoon. At present, weak El Nino conditions continue over the Pacific Ocean, and climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS), indicate that the phenomenon could strengthen during the southwest monsoon season. El Nino is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India, although its impact can vary depending on other climatic influences.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase, and forecasts suggest that this condition is likely to persist through the monsoon season. Since both El Nino and the IOD significantly influence rainfall patterns across the Indian subcontinent, meteorologists will continue monitoring their evolution closely in the coming weeks.
Despite the challenging outlook, the IMD has stressed that timely preparedness can help minimise the impact of adverse weather conditions. Authorities have been advised to strengthen water conservation efforts, improve reservoir management, and ensure efficient utilisation of available water resources. Farmers are encouraged to follow weather-based advisories and adopt suitable agricultural practices to reduce potential losses. With proactive planning and coordinated action, the country can better manage the risks associated with below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures during July 2026.