Kashmir has recorded seven consecutive winters with below-normal precipitation
Reduced snowfall is weakening natural water storage, affecting rivers and irrigation
Warmer winters are disrupting orchards, crops and increasing pest outbreaks
Scientists say temperatures in the Valley have steadily risen over recent decades
Experts warn that policy responses have yet to match the pace of environmental change
For much of his childhood, Mushtaq Ahmad Shah remembers winter in Srinagar as a season defined by snow.
Now 64, Shah grew up in Lal Chowk, in the heart of the city, at a time when heavy snowfall was routine.“We would wake up and find the courtyard covered with snow,” he recalls. “Before we could go outside, we had to clear it.”
When the snow began to soften in March, he and other children would scoop up handfuls and eat it like ice cream.
However, this year — like several in recent memory — passed with little snowfall across much of the Kashmir Valley. Shah says the change has become increasingly noticeable. “It is not just this winter,” he told Down to Earth (DTE). “For nearly seven winters now we have seen inadequate snowfall and long dry spells. I am shocked and worried to see back-to-back warm winters.”
The shift is raising wider concerns about the region’s ecology. Many native plant and animal species depend on sustained cold conditions, Shah says, warning that warmer winters could gradually alter the Valley’s ecological balance. “Some species may disappear while new ones may appear,” he says.
The lack of snowfall also has implications for water security. Snow and glaciers act as natural reservoirs in the Himalayas, releasing water slowly into rivers and streams during the summer months. Reduced snow accumulation could therefore lead to shortages later in the year, affecting both agriculture and drinking water supplies.
Tourism — a key source of income in the region — may also be at risk if winter snowfall continues to decline.
Shah believes human activity may be contributing to the changes. “There is more construction, more vehicles and more activity in places that used to remain quiet in winter,” he says, pointing to rapid tourism and infrastructure growth in Gulmarg, Sonamarg and Pahalgam.
“If this continues, the consequences for Kashmir could be serious.”
The unusually warm winter is also worrying agricultural scientists, who say the shift could have far-reaching consequences for farming in the Valley.
Sameera Qayoom, professor and head of the Division of Agrometeorology at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST) Kashmir, says the region’s agriculture depends heavily on winter snowfall in surrounding mountains. Snow accumulated during winter gradually melts in spring, feeding rivers such as the Jhelum and sustaining irrigation during the growing season.
“When winters are warmer and snowfall is reduced, it disrupts this entire system,” she says. “Less snow means less water available for irrigation in spring, streams begin to dry earlier and crops can experience water stress during critical growth stages.”
The implications are particularly serious for Kashmir’s horticulture sector, which forms the backbone of the rural economy. Fruit crops such as apples, cherries and walnuts require a certain number of chilling hours during winter dormancy.
“When winters are unusually warm, the chilling requirement may not be fulfilled,” Qayoom explains. “This can lead to delayed or uneven flowering, poor fruit set and ultimately lower yields and fruit quality.”
Warmer winters can also allow pests and pathogens that would normally be killed by cold temperatures to survive and multiply. “This can lead to early outbreaks of aphids and mites, as well as increased fungal diseases in orchards,” she says, adding that farmers may be forced to use more pesticides.
Field crops such as wheat and mustard are also vulnerable. Higher temperatures can trigger early germination and accelerate plant development, shortening the grain-filling stage and reducing yields. There is also the risk of frost damage.
“When winters are warm, plants may break dormancy earlier than usual,” Qayoom says. “If a late frost occurs afterwards, it can damage flower buds or blossoms and drastically reduce production.”
Warmer conditions can further affect soil moisture and local microclimates, increasing evaporation and reducing moisture retention.
Meteorological data suggests that the winter of 2025–26 has been among the most unusual on record in Kashmir, marked by both exceptional warmth and sharply reduced precipitation.
Faizan Arif, an independent weather analyst based in the region, says February was the warmest on record at several monitoring stations across the Valley. In Srinagar, the average maximum temperature reached around 15.6 degrees Celsius (°C), surpassing the previous February record of 14.9°C set in 2016.
Similar record-breaking warmth was recorded in Qazigund, Kupwara, Kokernag and Pahalgam. Even Gulmarg — typically among the coldest places in the Valley — registered unusually high temperatures.
During the first week of March, temperatures in Gulmarg, known for skiing, climbed to 17.2°C — nearly 13.7°C above normal and close to its all-time March record. “Such widespread warmth during what is normally the coldest phase of the year is highly unusual for Kashmir,” Arif says.
At the same time, precipitation levels have dropped sharply. Between December 2025 and February 2026, Jammu and Kashmir received 100.6 millimetres (mm) of precipitation, compared with a normal of 284.9 mm — a deficit of 65 per cent.
February was particularly dry, with just 14.2 mm of precipitation against a normal of 130.4 mm — a deficit of nearly 89 per cent. Several meteorological stations recorded their lowest or near-lowest February rainfall since records began. In Srinagar, just 5.3 mm of precipitation was recorded — among the lowest February totals since observations started in 1901.
The dry conditions now appear to be part of a longer trend. According to Faizan Arif, every winter since 2019-20 has ended with below-normal precipitation, making 2025-26 the seventh consecutive deficient winter in Jammu and Kashmir.
The effects are already visible in the region’s rivers. In early March, the Jhelum at Sangam fell below the zero gauge level, reaching –0.86 feet on 5 March.
Typically, warm spells in winter trigger strong snowmelt, raising river levels by several feet. This year, however, the rise in the Jhelum was brief and minimal — suggesting that snow accumulation in the mountains had been limited.
“That weak response from the river indicates that the snowpack this winter was very low,” Arif says.
Climate researchers say these changes are consistent with a broader warming trend across the Himalayan region.
Yasir Altaf, assistant professor in the Department of Environment, Sustainability and Climate Change at the Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST), says long-term observations show that the Kashmir Valley’s average temperature rose by about 0.8°C between 1980 and 2016.
Maximum temperatures, he adds, have been increasing at roughly 0.03°C per year.
“These trends point toward progressively milder winters and declining snowfall,” Altaf says.
Weather records also indicate a pattern of persistent rainfall deficits.
In 2024, Jammu and Kashmir recorded its driest year in nearly five decades, receiving 870.9mm of rainfall against a normal annual average of 1,232.3mm — a deficit of 29 per cent.
Mohammad Muslim, assistant professor in the Department of Environmental Science at the University of Kashmir, says the region is showing clear signs of climate change.
“One emerging pattern is a shift in the seasonality of precipitation,” he says. “Winter precipitation is increasingly moving toward the onset of spring.”
Research suggests that Western Disturbances — Mediterranean weather systems responsible for most winter snowfall in Kashmir — are becoming more erratic. While some disturbances appear to intensify toward late winter, overall snowfall during the core winter months has declined. Winter snow plays a critical role in the Himalayan ecosystem.
Snow accumulation replenishes glaciers and snowpacks, which gradually release meltwater during warmer months. “These cryosphere reserves act as natural water storage for the entire Valley,” Muslim says.
“Unlike much of India, where paddy cultivation depends on the summer monsoon, agriculture in Kashmir relies heavily on snowmelt during spring and summer.” Reduced snowfall could therefore have cascading effects — threatening water availability, agriculture, food security and even hydropower generation.
For policy observers, the shift in winter patterns is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Mutaharra AW Deva, a Srinagar-based climate policy consultant, says winters are not disappearing entirely, but are changing in ways that are both measurable and significant. “Snowfall used to be more predictable in the 1980s and 1990s, and snow cover persisted longer,” she says. “That stable winter chill regulated ecological processes such as groundwater recharge, wetland hydrology and agricultural cycles.”
Satellite observations across the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region show a decline in “snow persistence” — meaning that snow cover does not last as long as it once did.
Despite these signals, she says, policy responses remain limited.
Although Jammu and Kashmir has adopted broader environmental frameworks such as the State Action Plan on Climate Change, warming winters have not yet translated into coordinated seasonal preparedness.
“Most climate policies focus on long-term planning,” Deva says. “But changing winter patterns require integrated responses across sectors such as agriculture, water management and tourism.”
At the policy level, the J&K government has recently constituted a UT Level Steering Committee (UTLSC) to oversee implementation of its Climate Change Action Plan.
According to a government order issued on March 11, 2026, the committee — chaired by the Chief Secretary and comprising senior officials from departments including Jal Shakti, Agriculture, Power Development, Forest, Disaster Management and Urban Development — will review the plan and guide the integration of climate considerations into sectoral policies and development programmes.
Even so, experts say operational responses remain limited.
A retired official from the Disaster Management Department says no specific contingency plan has yet been introduced in response to the unusually warm winter. “There has been no concrete action so far to address the seriousness of the situation,” the official says.
Experts argue that immediate attention should be given to water conservation and climate adaptation. “Kashmir receives rainfall during March and April as well, but much of this water simply runs off and is lost,” the former official says. “We need systems to conserve that water.”
Suggested measures include rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge, catchment protection and innovations such as artificial glaciers — which store water in frozen form and release it gradually during warmer months. Urban planning, too, must take ecological factors into account.
“A smart city is not just about concrete roads and street lighting,” the official says. “Planning must also ensure spaces where water can seep into the ground and recharge aquifers.”
Without such interventions, warmer and drier winters could intensify water stress across the Valley in the coming summer months.