Rajasthan’s winter is shrinking, with temperatures rising earlier and cold spells shortening
Fewer western disturbances and near-zero rainfall have disrupted seasonal patterns
Farmers report 25–30% crop losses, with declining grain quality and moisture stress
Livestock are falling ill due to sharp temperature swings between day and night
Scientists warn that shifting climate patterns are altering both agriculture and natural ecosystems
In Rajasthan, winter appears to be slipping away earlier than it once did.
As the season draws to a close — particularly during February and March — temperatures are already rising above normal levels. What was once a gradual transition is now becoming abrupt: winter is receding ahead of schedule, and summer is arriving sooner than expected.
A traditional Marwari folk song captures a very different reality — one of biting cold and long winters:
My beloved, do not leave me in this winter season;
The earth and the heavens alike are trembling with the cold —
Let us set out together when the summer arrives.
A salt-like frost has settled upon the fields;
The very soil is damp and slushy.
Huddling around fires to warm themselves,
The village youth seek respite from the chill.
The song continues with a woman pleading with her husband not to travel in such severe cold — describing frost thick as salt on the fields, children gathered around fires, and desperate attempts to stay warm by burning whatever was available, even clothing.
Through this oral tradition, the Marwari dialect vividly evokes the harsh winters of Paush (December-January). But today, that memory sits uneasily with reality.
Due to climate change, the seasonal cycle is shifting. Winters are no longer as intense, nor as predictable. And both people and ecosystems are struggling to adjust.
Winters in Rajasthan are becoming warmer and shorter. During the winter season spanning November-December 2025 and the first three months of 2026, the region received far less rainfall than is typical for this time of year. Cold wave days have also declined.
Under normal conditions, Rajasthan experiences around five to six active Western Disturbances — weather systems that bring winter rain and help intensify the cold. This year, however, only two or three such disturbances were recorded, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The consequences are already visible. The growing number of warmer days during winter is affecting daily life as well as agricultural cycles. For sheep-rearers, the seasonal rhythm has been disrupted. The end of winter is usually when sheep are sheared, but fluctuating temperatures are creating new risks.
Animals that have already been sheared are developing pneumonia due to cold nights, while those yet to be sheared are falling ill because of unusually warm days.
To understand the changes on the ground, Down To Earth (DTE) spoke to Chatar Singh Jam, a farmer and environmentalist from Jaisalmer. “In western Rajasthan, winter used to set in between November 10 and 15,” he says. “This year, it arrived nearly a month late, around December 15 or 16.”
According to him, the intense cold lasted barely 20 to 25 days, ending by mid-January. “The ground turned white, as if someone had sprinkled salt over it,” he recalls. “The cold scorched Khejri and Ker trees. But immediately after Sankranti, the cold vanished, and now temperatures are hovering around 40 degrees Celsius (°C).”
He contrasts this with earlier decades. “In the desert, years with low rainfall used to bring harsher winters, because dry soil loses heat quickly. But even 10 years ago, days during winter would still feel cool despite sunshine. Now, you begin to feel heat even in winter afternoons.”
He also points to a shift in wind patterns. “Typically, north-westerly winds would sweep across the desert during this season. This time, those moisture-laden winds did not arrive. That directly affected crops.”
The impact has been severe. Moisture in Khadins, or traditional water-harvesting structures, evaporated faster than usual. “We call it the crops ‘thirsting’,” he explains. “Germination declined. Farmers delayed sowing, waiting for the right conditions. Then, when a short spell of intense cold arrived, it scorched mustard and gram crops.”
Farmers across the state are reporting similar patterns. Kailash Chaudhary, a farmer in Jaipur cultivating vegetables and Rabi crops across around 20 bighas (over 5 hectares) of land, says the effects have been uneven.
“Vegetables like tomatoes, cucumbers and bitter gourds did well because of the milder winter,” he says. “But wheat and mustard grains remained small due to the heat.” He adds that crops also suffered from a lack of moisture, preventing proper growth.
Chatar Singh Jam notes that changes in seasonal winds are compounding the problem. “Ten to twenty years ago, northerly winds would begin during Navratri — between late September and early October. This time, they were delayed by about a month.”
That delay shortened the window of favourable conditions for crops. “For a good harvest, farmers need a stable temperature range for around 120 to 125 days,” he says. “This season, we got only about 90 days.”
The shift has been stark. “February felt like October,” he adds. “And temperatures that usually reach 40°C only by the end of March hit that level in the first week of March.” The result, he says simply: “The crops withered.”
Dheeraj Singh, head of the Integrated Farming Systems Division at the Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI) in Jodhpur, says rising winter temperatures are already affecting agricultural output.
Speaking to DTE, he explains that the winter season is becoming shorter, and that has direct consequences for Rabi crops, which depend on a narrow range of climatic conditions.
“If crops do not receive the right temperatures and atmospheric humidity (from sowing and germination through to full grain maturity) yields can fall by as much as 25-30 per cent,” he says.
The impact is not limited to quantity. Quality is also declining. Mustard seeds, which typically contain 38-42 per cent oil, are now showing reduced oil content. Wheat grains, meanwhile, are shrivelling, and the harvested crop is expected to lose its characteristic colour and flavour.
Singh adds that early summer conditions are compounding the problem. “When summer sets in early, flowering plants experience heat stress and begin to flower prematurely. This leads to a decline in both yield and quality,” he explains.
This year, the effects have been widespread. “Due to a mild winter and the early onset of summer, crops such as wheat, mustard and gram have been affected on a significant scale.” At CAZRI itself, harvesting is currently underway, but the results are telling.
“The institute has recorded a 25-30 per cent reduction in crop yield,” he says. “Plants remained stunted and failed to accumulate sufficient biomass. As a result, crops matured earlier than usual.”
Even native trees are showing signs of disruption. “Typically, the Khejri tree flowers in March,” he says. “This year, flowering began as early as February across the region. The natural physiological behaviour of these plants has been altered by prevailing weather conditions.”
Alongside rising temperatures, rainfall during the winter months has been significantly below normal. According to data from the IMD, Rajasthan remained largely warm during the first fortnight of January. On January 9, 2026 light drizzle was recorded only in isolated pockets of eastern Rajasthan.
Overall, rainfall was 97 per cent below the long-period average for this time of year. Typically, Rajasthan receives about 1 millimetre (mm) of rainfall during this period. This year, no rainfall was recorded across the state.
In eastern Rajasthan, where normal rainfall is around 1.1 mm, only 0.1 mm was recorded. In western Rajasthan, which usually receives about 0.9 mm, there was no rainfall at all.
The pattern continued into February. During the first week of the month, eastern Rajasthan received just 0.9 mm of rainfall against a normal of 1.1 mm. Western Rajasthan, where 0.7 mm is expected, again saw no rainfall.
Overall, rainfall across the state remained 39 per cent below normal — with western Rajasthan receiving none in both January and February. Between February 6 and 12, not a single drop of rain was recorded anywhere in the state, despite a normal expectation of 1.4 mm.
At the same time, maximum temperatures remained 2-3°C above average throughout the month. In March, the trend continued. So far, there has been no rainfall, while temperatures in places such as Barmer have already crossed 40°C.
Meteorologists say these changes are part of a broader shift in weather patterns. Radheshyam Sharma, director of the Jaipur Meteorological Centre, says that while some winter conditions appeared near normal, subtle changes are becoming more pronounced.
“In December, maximum temperatures were 1-2 degrees above average,” he says. “In January, only a few isolated areas recorded below-normal temperatures, while most districts remained close to average.”
Night-time temperatures, however, were higher than usual in parts of western Rajasthan — by as much as two degrees. “In eastern Rajasthan too, minimum temperatures remained around normal levels,” he adds, noting that the average hovered around 10°C during January.
One of the most striking changes has been the decline in freezing conditions. “In plains districts such as Bikaner and Churu, temperatures hovered around zero degrees for only one or two days,” Sharma says. “They did not drop below freezing at all during January.”
This is a departure from the norm in the Shekhawati region — including Sikar and Churu — where temperatures typically fall below freezing four to five times in a season. “Even in December, sub-zero temperatures were recorded only briefly, for a day or two,” he adds.
Cold wave patterns are also changing. “Typically, we see around 10 to 12 cold wave days in a season,” Sharma says. “This year, the number was similar, but each spell lasted only two to three days.”
In the past, cold waves would often persist for four to five days at a stretch. Sharma attributes these shifts to broader climatic changes.
“Our wind patterns are changing, largely due to reduced snowfall in the mountains,” he says. “In this region, the severity of winter depends on Western Disturbances and snowfall in the Himalayan belt.”
The overall effect is clear. “In recent years, especially towards the end of winter — in February and March — temperatures have been consistently higher than average,” he says. “Winter is receding earlier, and summer is arriving sooner.”
Erratic temperature patterns are now affecting not just crops, but livestock as well. Farmers say the sharp contrast between hot days and cold nights is making animals more vulnerable to disease.
In Rajasthan, this is typically the season for shearing sheep. But shifting weather conditions have created a difficult choice for herders. If sheep are sheared, they are exposed to cold nights and risk developing pneumonia. If they are not sheared, they suffer in the daytime heat.
Chatar Singh says that in parts of Jaisalmer and Barmer, cases of pneumonia and other illnesses among sheep and goats are already being reported.
The disruption extends to rainfall patterns — a key factor in sustaining winter agriculture in the desert. Environmental expert Parth Jagani, who works on climate change and desert ecology, says the season began unusually late.
“There was no real winter until around December 15,” he says. “Farmers delayed sowing during the first two weeks of December, waiting for the cold to set in.”
In the region, major winter crops include cumin, psyllium (Isabgol), mustard, gram and wheat. “The sowing of cumin was delayed the most,” he adds, “because farmers could not find the specific temperature conditions needed for its cultivation.”
Rainfall has also been unusually scarce. “Throughout the season, Mawath — the winter rain — occurred only once,” Jagani says. “Normally, we see four to five such events in a season.”
Last year, he notes, there was no winter rainfall at all. Mawath plays a crucial role in strengthening winter conditions. It helps intensify cold and fog, which in turn supports the growth of Rabi crops.
In Jaipur, the state capital, the changing character of winter is equally evident. Official data shows that Mawath was recorded on only two days in January. On January 1, light rainfall and drizzle were reported across 20 districts of Rajasthan, but sustained winter conditions never followed.
This year, Jaipur experienced severe cold for just two weeks. Out of a typical 120-day winter period, night-time temperatures fell below 10°C on only 21 days — six in December and 15 in January. For the remaining 87 days, minimum temperatures stayed above 10°C, while daytime conditions were marked by strong sunshine.
Even forecast weather systems failed to deliver. IMD had forecast that a Western Disturbance would remain active for two days during the final stretch of February. In reality, the system passed with little to no rainfall.
Data also shows that night-time temperatures during November, December and February remained consistently above seasonal averages. Winter itself appeared delayed from the outset.
In Jaipur, the season usually begins in November. This year, although two weather systems capable of intensifying the cold formed during the month, neither became active.
As a result, night-time temperatures did not drop below 12°C even once in November. The shift has culminated in an unusual record: February has emerged as the warmest in the region in the past decade.