The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal is likely to make landfall in the late evening hours of September 23, 2026, along the northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur, close to Kalingapatnam, according to the latest tropical weather outlook from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Further intensification of the deep depression and the formation of a cyclone were possibly hindered by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon.
The current forecast track of the storm system shows movement in a north-westward direction towards north-west India and adjoining regions of Nepal. The forecast also shows significant rainfall all along its track in parts of eastern, central, southern and northern India and Nepal.
Around 5:30 am on September 23, the deep depression was around 70 km south-south-east of Kalingapatnam and 150 km south of Gopalpur, according to the IMD.
The weather agency predicted that the deep depression, which is only one level of intensity lower than a tropical cyclone, is very likely to move west-north-westwards and cross the coast near Kalingapatnam between 8:30 pm and 11:30 pm on September 23.
The wind speeds of the storm are between 55 km/hr and 65 km/hr, gusting to 75 km/hr, according to the IMD. Cyclonic wind speeds start from 65 km/hr onwards. The deep depression is likely to maintain its strength until 5:30 pm on September 23, after which it will lose strength, with wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr and gusts of up to 70 km/hr just before making landfall.
The IMD predicted that the storm will decrease in intensity to a depression by the evening of September 24 and remain a depression until the evening of September 25.
Earlier forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the United States’ Global Forecasting System (GFS), as visualised on the Windy platform, had shown the formation of a weak cyclone along the northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts.
This forecast did not come to fruition, according to current forecasts from the IMD. One possible reason could be the ongoing strong El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is the warmer-than-normal phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and is generally associated with the suppression of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region, especially in the Bay of Bengal.
During an El Niño event, there is higher-than-normal vertical wind shear over the Bay of Bengal, according to a research paper published in the journal Climate in November 2023. Other factors that inhibit the formation of cyclones are the general suppression of convection due to a lack of moisture, as well as sinking air and high-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal.
The current deep depression has already started causing heavy rainfall along the northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts, with much more rainfall expected as the storm traces its way towards north-west India.