A delayed monsoon in Gujarat’s Kutch region is putting rainfed farmers and Maldhari pastoralists under severe stress.
Early-sown crops such as bajra, moong and sesame face possible failure if rainfall does not arrive soon, while groundwater-dependent cash crops may also suffer without monsoon recharge.
Dry fodder prices have doubled, lakes are drying or turning saline, and falling milk production is threatening pastoral livelihoods.
In the Banni grasslands, the lack of rain is deepening fodder scarcity, altering grazing patterns and putting pressure on fragile ecosystems and wildlife habitats.
“Rahiman paani rakhiye, paani bin sab soon. Paani gaye na ubere moti, maanas, choon.” Preserve water, for without it everything is void. When water is lost, three things lose their essence forever: the pearl its lustre, the human their dignity, and flour its utility. Centuries ago, the poet Rahim captured a timeless socio-ecological truth. Today, as climate variability accelerates across the Indian subcontinent, his verse is playing out with brutal literalness in the arid landscapes of western India.
The Kutch region of Gujarat, long defined by its precarious geography and highly erratic rainfall, is facing a stark reminder of its vulnerability. When the monsoon falters, the entire socio-economic fabric of this unique biome begins to fray.
Over the past few years, Kutch experienced an unusual cycle of generous rainfall. This window of abundance supported major state and community-led plantation drives, revived traditional water harvesting systems, and encouraged the restoration of ancient recharge structures alongside the creation of new water sources.
For a brief period, these interventions helped shield communities and their large livestock populations from the immediate threat of drought.
But the current season has exposed the limits of structural resilience when weather patterns shift sharply. A severely delayed monsoon is now affecting both pastoralists and farmers, showing that infrastructure alone cannot compensate for the breakdown of seasonal rainfall.
In an ecosystem where cattle rearing remains the primary traditional livelihood, and where much of the agricultural land is entirely rainfed, the cost of a dry July can be severe.
The agricultural calendar in Kutch is a delicate balancing act governed by timing. According to Praveen Muchhadiya, a representative from the grassroots agricultural organisation Satvik, options are narrowing quickly for rainfed farmers.
“Early-sowing rainfed crops such as bajra, moong and both brown and white varieties of til are on the brink of total failure for the season if the monsoon fails to arrive by the end of July,” Muchhadiya warns.
Hardier alternatives such as castor and sorghum can withstand the delay and still be sown into early August. But they cannot fully compensate for the economic loss caused by missed food crops.
Even farmers with access to groundwater irrigation, who typically cultivate cash crops such as cotton and groundnut, face a difficult season. Without monsoon recharge, groundwater levels fall, affecting both the quality and quantity of the harvest.
Ironically, the extended dry spell has produced one limited benefit. The delayed onset of rain prolonged the harvest and marketing window for premium local horticultural produce, especially Kutch’s indigenous dates and mangoes, giving growers more time to secure better prices.
But that modest gain is being eclipsed by a much larger pastoral crisis.
For Kutch’s Maldhari pastoral communities, water scarcity quickly becomes a crisis of animal husbandry. Aamadbhai Tuga, a member of the Bhuj Cattle Rearers Association, says the market rate for dry fodder has doubled almost overnight.
“We are forced to purchase dry fodder from retail merchants at an exorbitant rate of Rs 12 per kilogram,” Tuga says. “In ordinary times, buying wholesale would cost us Rs 6 per kilogram. Today, wholesale stocks have completely dried up, leaving us entirely at the mercy of retailers.”
At the same time, the region’s natural water systems are under stress. Lakes have either dried out completely or contracted into shallow pools of highly saline, brackish water.
Without access to fresh drinking water, cattle are consuming only small amounts to survive, increasing the risk of dehydration. With green vegetation also disappearing after an extended summer and delayed rains, livestock health is deteriorating rapidly.
Milk production, the economic lifeline of many Maldhari households, has begun to fall.
The situation is equally critical in the Banni grasslands, one of Asia’s largest tropical grassland systems.
“There is absolutely no grass left standing in Banni right now,” says Ishabhai Mutwa of the Banni Breeders Association.
Historically, during local rainfall deficits, fodder was brought in from water-abundant districts of southern Gujarat, such as Surat, Valsad and Vapi. This year, that supply chain has broken down because those districts are facing severe flooding.
Mutwa says the Forest Department has large reserves of harvested Banni grass.
“By policy, this grass cannot be preserved for more than three years because it naturally degrades,” he says. “Usually, the department distributes this stock to panjarapoles at highly subsidised rates before it spoils. It must now be released to livestock keepers immediately to save our animals.”
He says the delay is linked to the fact that the state has not yet formally declared a drought.
“Because the state has not formally declared a drought yet, the administration is holding back the reserves. This bureaucratic rigidity is fundamentally unfair,” he says.
The association has urged the District Collector to convene an emergency coordination meeting between the Revenue and Forest departments to release the stored grass.
As natural inland lakes inside deeper forest pockets dry up, cattle breeders are migrating back towards peripheral villages, clustering around the remaining human-managed water sources. This is beginning to create localised pressure over scarce resources.
Beyond the immediate economic distress, the delayed monsoon is also affecting the underlying ecosystem.
Local ecologist Pankaj Joshi says the Banni grasslands host more than 50 indigenous grass species, each adapted to specific moisture conditions. A prolonged delay in rainfall can alter the delicate floral composition of the grassland, giving invasive or less nutritious species an opportunity to spread.
Livestock are also changing their traditional grazing routes in search of fodder. This erratic movement is pushing large domestic herds into protected and sensitive natural zones, increasing pressure on habitats that may not have the carrying capacity to support both wild herbivores and domestic cattle.
“This creates severe competitive pressure on native wildlife species tied to those specific habitats,” Pankajbhai warns.
The result could be a wider degradation of ecosystem services, from soil stabilisation to biodiversity maintenance, that may take years to recover.
The crisis in Kutch is a reminder of Rahim’s warning: when paani goes, the lustre of the land, the dignity of its people and the survival of its ecology all hang in the balance.
What Kutch needs now is proactive administrative intervention, not merely a delayed response after a formal drought declaration. Timely release of fodder reserves, protection of drinking water sources and support for rainfed farmers and pastoralists could determine whether this dry spell remains a difficult season or becomes a deeper ecological crisis.
Aseem Mishra is an Urban Planner and the Programme Director of Homes in the City. Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth