A possible cyclone could be brewing the Bay of Bengal, which could strike the coast of peninsular India in the next 2-3 days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The weather agency said in a statement issued on November 20 that a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the South Andaman Sea on November 21, which may become a Low Pressure Area around November 23 and a depression around November 24.
The statement noted that there was large divergence among various models with respect to peak intensification of the system. The GFS group of models indicated higher intensification, ECMWF up to depression/deep depression stage and NCUM upto low pressure area stage.
It added though that there is good consensus among various models that the system would weaken before crossing the Tamil Nadu coast.
“Most of the models are indicating west-northwestwards to northwestwards movement towards Sri Lanka — South Tamil Nadu coasts. Only NCEP GFS is indicating initial west-northwestwards movement followed by north-northwestwards movement and crossing over Andhra Pradesh coast,” read the statement.
If the system becomes a cyclone, it would be named ‘Fengal’, a name suggested by Saudi Arabia.
A bulletin issued by the IMD at 12.45 pm on November 21 noted that an upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over Equatorial Indian Ocean off Sumatra coast and adjoining South Andaman Sea at 0830 hours IST.
“Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around 23rd November. Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over central parts of south Bay of Bengal during subsequent 2 days,” it added.
If Fengal forms, it would be coming in the wake of Dana. It was the third cyclonic storm and second severe cyclonic storm of the 2024 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.
Cyclone Dana made landfall at Habalikhati within Bhitarkanika National Park in Odisha midnight on October 25, 2024, bringing severe winds and heavy rainfall that pummelled the coastal region.