A study has projected a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2014 and 2055 with up to 4,000 glaciers vanishing annually depending on the level of warming above pre-industrial levels. That is equivalent to losing all the glaciers in the European Alps in just one year.
An ETH Zurich-led team quantified the disappearance of each of the world’s more than 200,000 glaciers included in the global Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6.0 under four policy-relevant global warming scenarios - 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.7 °C and 4.0 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change on December 15, 2025, used three global glacier models. It introduced the concept of ‘peak glacier extinction’— the year in which the largest number of glaciers is projected to disappear between now (2025) and the end of the century.
In the study, a glacier is classified as ‘disappeared’, or ‘extinct’, when either its projected area falls below 0.01 sq km or its remaining volume declines to less than 1 per cent of its initial value.
The results showed that glacier extinction (the number of individual glaciers disappearing) will peak around mid-century, with both its timing and magnitude depending on the warming level.
Under +1.5 °C, global peak glacier extinction is projected to reach 2,000 glaciers per year around 2041. Under +4.0 °C, this peak shifts to the mid-2050s and intensifies to 4,000 per year. This delayed peak under higher warming reflects the associated longer and stronger glacier area and volume loss, the study said.
The timing of peak glacier extinction varies markedly across regions, reflecting differences in glacier size distributions, inventories and response times.
In regions dominated by small and rapidly responding glaciers, such as the Caucasus, the Subtropical Andes, North Asia and the European Alps (Central Europe), over 50 per cent of the glaciers are projected to disappear within the next two decades.
Thus, peak glacier extinction in these regions occurs early, typically before or around 2040, and is largely insensitive to the warming level. The glaciers lost during this period are predominantly small and contribute minimally to the region’s total ice volume and area.
In contrast, regions with a higher proportion of larger glaciers, including the ice sheet peripheries (Greenland and Antarctic/Sub-Antarctic), Svalbard and the Russian Arctic, exhibit a delayed peak in glacier extinction that occurs later in the twenty-first century or potentially even beyond in some regions such as Arctic Canada North. In these regions, the timing of peak extinction is also more sensitive to the warming level, consistent with their slower dynamic responses and dominance of larger glaciers.
High-mountain Asia hosts more than one third of all glaciers around the globe (90,000 glaciers out of 210,000), making it a key contributor to the global glacier distribution. Due to the predominance of glaciers with intermediate sizes, the region exhibits a distinct mid-century peak in glacier extinction, which is strongly reflected in the global pattern.
At peak glacier extinction, between 2,000 individual glaciers per year under +1.5 °C warming and 4,000 per year under +4.0 °C are projected to disappear globally. The rate is equivalent to losing the entire glacier population of the European Alps in just one year and represents a rate three to five times higher than the present-day modelled global loss of 750-800 glaciers annually.
After the peak, the annual loss rate gradually declines, reaching 700-1,200 glaciers per year by the end of the century. However, this does not mark the end of glacier disappearance: substantial glacier mass loss is expected to continue beyond 2100 suggesting that many additional glaciers will disappear in the twenty-second century.
Regionally, maximum glacier extinction rates are influenced by both the present-day glacier number, particularly the abundance of small glaciers, and the warming level.
In regions with relatively few glaciers, such as Iceland, peak annual loss remains limited to 5-10 glaciers. In contrast, Central Asia, which hosts the largest glacier population, currently loses 200-300 glaciers per year. The rate is projected to peak at 500 per year under +1.5 °C warming, increasing to 1,100 per year under +4.0 °C.
The results point to a systematic shift in the glacier size distribution, with an increasing dominance of very small glaciers and a decline in larger ones.
As glaciers shrink, communities are confronted with these changes, sometimes marking their loss with symbolic rituals, such as the ‘glacier funerals’ for Okjökull glacier (Iceland, 2019), Pizol glacier (Switzerland, 2019) and Yala glacier (Nepal, 2025). These ceremonies highlight the emotional and societal dimensions of glacier loss. Iceland has even established a global glacier graveyard, while initiatives such as the Global Glacier Casualty List aim to preserve the names and histories of vanishing glaciers.
While glaciers are expected to shrink significantly this century, many could still survive, especially if global warming is limited. The study also highlighted the importance of mitigation: limiting warming to +1.5 °C could more than double the number of glaciers surviving by 2100 compared with +2.7 °C and prevent the near-complete loss expected under +4.0 °C warming, where fewer than 20,000 glaciers are projected to persist. Results underscore the urgency of ambitious climate policy.