A decade after global leaders unanimously agreed to cut down greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rapidly and collectively at Paris by inking a legally binding agreement, the world is going in a “wrong direction” with emissions volume increasing, warned a new report on November 13, 2025.
The Global Carbon Budget was launched in Belem on the side lines of the ongoing 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It has shown that global fossil fuel-linked emissions are still increasing and projected to hit 38.1 billion tonnes, an all-time high, during the current year. The latest projected GHG volume shows a marginal increasing trend over the last year.
The report also pointed out that India contributes 3.2 billion tonnes of GHG volume and its rate of emissions growth, though still higher than the global average, is gradually declining mainly due to an emphasis on solar power production.
The study report, prepared by Future Earth and the World Climate Research Programme, finds that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase by 1.1 per cent in 2025 compared to 2024. It claims that the remaining carbon budget for keeping the global temperature rise within 1.5 degree Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era benchmark, a Paris mandate, will be exhausted in about four years if emissions continue at current levels.
The report finds that the current volume of global GHG emission is about 10 per cent higher than 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted, observing that the trend is “a clear sign that despite progress, the world is still heading in the wrong direction”.
The study shows that India produced about 3.19 billion tonnes of GHG emissions in 2024. This is set to rise about 1.4 per cent in the current year reaching 3.23 billion. India produced 3.1 billion tonnes in 2023 levels.
Though India’s emissions increase is still higher than the global average, the report admits to improvement. “India’s emissions are projected to increase by 1.4% … slower than recent trends,” reads the report. It adds that “an early monsoon (that) reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months …combined with strong growth in renewables (has) led to very low growth in coal consumption.” Figures point out that China is following the same pattern, with 0.4 per cent growth in the last year.
According to the global report, a copy of which is with this correspondent, China is still at the top of the emissions ladder in 2025 in terms of gross volume, with a projected 12.3 billion tonnes. It is followed by the United States with five billion tonnes and India which, however, has a low per capita generation.
The US, under Donald Trump, is set to record around 1.9 per cent annual increase in GHG production during 2025. It recorded negative or no growth in the earlier two years.
“With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study, adding that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degree C, 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be gone before 2030 at the current emissions rate.
Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, however, pointed out that “efforts to tackle climate change are visible, with 35 countries succeeding in reducing their emissions while growing their economies.”
“Unless we sharply cut down fossil fuel emission soon, the situation may quickly go out of hand,” warned an India-based climate expert, adding that the latest report has also busted the myth of coal being the major emitting source as it contributes 43 per cent compared to 55 per cent contributed by oil and gas together.
The report also finds that within 42.4 billion tonnes total GHG emissions in 2024, including from fossil fuel and land use, 29 billion tonnes was from atmospheric sources and 12.4 from the oceans.